Cam Newton and his Carolina Panthers have been solid bets at home recently, going 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine games played at The Vault. Drew Brees and his New Orleans Saints are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
Plenty of trends point to the Panthers here. So does the point spread, and so does the prediction computer.
Point spread: Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.2-25.1 Panthers
Why the Saints can cover the spread
New Orleans has struggled a bit recently and just lost rather badly at St. Louis. But the Saints are still one of the most balanced teams in the league, ranking fifth in the league in both total offense and total defense.
New Orleans has also had some problems on the road this season, but the Saints have actually won their last two games on natural grass. And they just beat Carolina two weeks ago, as Brees picked them apart for 300 yards and four scores.
Why the Panthers can cover the spread
It's a cliché, but at the moment it's very true. Nobody wants to play Carolina. The Panthers have won nine of their last 10 games after beating the Jets on Sunday and are tied with New Orleans for first place in the NFC South. Carolina ranks just 25th in total offense, but second in both total defense and against the run.
And while they lost to the Saints a couple of weeks ago, the Panthers also swept the season series last year, scoring 35 and 44 points.
They have dominated the money in divisional games (7-2 ATS) and are 4-1 ATS at home to the Saints the past five seasons.
It's a tight squeeze, but the computer foresees a Carolina victory but a Saints cover in a game that plays OVER its total. New Orleans just isn't the same team on the road as it is in that thunder-dome down on Sugar Bowl Drive.
Carolina, meanwhile, is the hot outfit and will be looking for revenge after that performance in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago. Give the points to the Panthers.
- UNDER is 6-1 past seven Saints divisional games
- Panthers 7-2 ATS past nine divisional games
- Panthers 4-1 ATS past five at home to Saints
- Saints 2-8 ATS past 10 road games
- Panthers 8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS past nine at home