Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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Cincinnati Bengals backers have been cashing in on Cincy home games lately, to the tune of a 6-1 against-the-spread run. The Minnesota Vikings don't have anything to play for, but they've shown some life with Matt Cassel at quarterback and had some recent ATS success too.

The Bengals host the Vikes on Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium, laying eight points as of Tuesday.

 

Point spread: Bengals opened as eight-point favorites; the total was 47.5 (Line updates and matchup report).

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.7-19.3 Bengals

 

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota has been playing out the string on this season for a while now, but with Cassel at quarterback, the Vikes have won two of their last three games, covering three straight point spreads. Minnesota is also 6-1 ATS over its last seven outings. This past Sunday, the Vikings put up 48 points on Philadelphia without either Adrian Peterson or Toby Gerhart.

The Vikings could have tanked this season after they started 1-7 and lost head coach Leslie Frazier in the process. But they've chosen to go another route, to the recent delight of their financial backers.

 

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincy has led the AFC North almost all season and would now like to put the finishing touches on another division title. The Bengals just got punked at Pittsburgh on Sunday night, but this is still a well-balanced team that ranks 10th overall offensively, sixth overall defensively and fifth in time-of-possession.

So far this NFL season, teams that have won the TOP battle have covered the spread 62 percent of the time. Also, Cincy has enjoyed that home cooking as of late, going 6-0 both SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium this season.

 

Smart Pick

The computer tells us Cincy will win and cover in a game that sneaks OVER its total. In the topsy-turvy world that is the NFL, this game sets up well for a “reversal of fortune” angle. The Vikings looked great in surprising the Eagles on Sunday, while the Bengals looked inept at Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

What's up one week is often down the next, and vice versa. Cincy gets the nod in this spot.

 

Trends:

  • Vikings 1-4 SU at Cincinnati since 1980
  • Vikings lost seven in a row SU as road underdogs
  • Bengals 6-1 ATS past seven home games

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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