The Kansas City Chiefs may be tied for first place in the AFC West, but they've also apparently been a little overrated in their home games recently, going just 2-10 against the spread the last 12 times they've been lined as favorites at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, are just 1-4 ATS the last five times they've been lined as dogs on the road. In a matchup of playoff-bound AFC teams, K.C. hosts Indy Sunday.
Point spread: Chiefs opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 (line updates and matchup report).
Odds Shark computer prediction: 31.2-22.9 Chiefs
Why the Colts can cover the spread
Indy, which has already clinched the AFC South, sits in the No. 4 spot in the AFC standings but still has a slight shot at moving up, possibly even earning the No. 2 seed and the bye. The Colts have had some rough outings over the last six weeks or so, but they still haven't lost back-to-back games with Andrew Luck at quarterback.
And they're coming off one of their better efforts as of late, rushing for 150 yards while holding the Texans to 240 total yards in a 25-3 victory Sunday.
They are 6-1 ATS in seven trips to Kansas City, a team that has struggled under the weight of home-favorite status (2-10 ATS).
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Even during its great run earlier this year, KC didn't garner a reputation as being particularly prolific offensively, but it also just bombed Oakland for 56 points. And over their last four games, the Chiefs have averaged 42 points per outing. Kansas City ranks 17th in total offense and 22nd in total defense, but head coach Andy Reid seems to be pushing most of the right buttons.
The computer is picking Kansas City to win and cover in a game that goes OVER its total. If the playoffs started today, these two teams would meet in a wild-card game in Indianapolis. Indy has been outgained and outrushed on the season, and while that's not the whole story, it says something.
The Colts could also be without leading rusher Donald Brown. Go with the computer, give the points with the Chiefs.
- Teams have alternated SU wins and losses past seven meetings (KC due to win).
- Colts are 6-1 ATS past seven trips to Kansas City.
- Chiefs are just 2-10 ATS past 12 games as home favorites.
- Colts are 1-4 ATS past five games as road underdogs.