Eleven horses are entered today in the Grade One Gamely at Hollywood. The race is nine furlongs and the favorite is Black Mamba, who is 3:1. Half the field has a legitimate chance to win but I really like front running Tuscan Evening to hold off the closers and win this $250,000 race.
Tuscan Evening ran an incredible race on May 10th at Hollywood. She won the 1 1/16th race in under 1:41 while leading from start to finish. Diamond Diva is the only other speed in the race and has two wins in four career starts at Hollywood.
I really believe these two horses have the ability to create significant distance between them and the rest of the field. If they ran mild fractions of six furlongs in 1:11 or so, they should have plenty left to remain strong during the stretch run. Anything faster will really hurt them and help the numerous closers make late charges.
Magical Fantasy, Lemon Chiffon and Black Mamba are all serious closers and should be making big moves as they approach the top of the stretch. Magical Fantasy beat Black Mamba only five weeks ago but that was at 10 furlongs and Magical Fantasy is adding seven pounds today.
I'm very curious to see how Toque de Queda runs today. This Bobby Frankel filly ran a very solid third five weeks ago in a Grade Two at Santa Anita but had a terrible trip that day. She was a beaten favorite that day but could go off at more than 15:1 today.
I like the morning line 10:1 Tuscan Evening to win this exciting race. She won her only start at Hollywood and she should be able to handle the extra furlong today. I think several horses can finish anywhere between second and seventh. The early race fractions will have a significant impact on the order of finish.
First: Tuscan Evening, Second: Black Mamba, Third: Diamond Diva, and Fourth: Toque de Queda in about 1:47.
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