Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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The Buffalo Bills come in on a 7-3 against-the-spread run against the Jacksonville Jaguars and are on a 5-1 ATS win streak when laying chalk on the road since 2007. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have covered four straight as an underdog.

 

Point spread: Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and matchup report.)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 16.6-8.8 Bills

 

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo isn't going to want to lose two straight to Florida's worst. This team went to Tampa Bay last week and was humiliated by the Buccaneers in a 27-6 loss. Though the Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS since Oct. 27, they are capable of taking it to the Jaguars, who lest we forget opened the season 0-8.

They are rarely road favorites but tend to cover the spread when they are laying points, 5-1 ATS since 2007, according to Odds Shark’s NFL database.

 

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

Once the laughingstock of the league, the Jaguars have won four of their last five—including their last three. Jacksonville doesn't have much to play for except pride, and in catching the Bills on the road, it should be able to generate some offense.

 

Smart Pick

Since its bye week, the Jaguars look like a different football team. With the Bills making their second trip to Florida in as many weeks, and coming in after last week's loss to the Buccaneers, the Jaguars are catching Buffalo at the right time.

Buffalo has been outscored in its last three road games by a collective final of 85-23. Look for the Jags to roll here.

 

Trends:

  • Bills are 7-3 ATS past 10 games vs. Jaguars
  • Bills are 5-1 ATS as road favorites since 2007
  • Jaguars covered four straight games as underdogs

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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