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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

FOXBORO, MA - DECEMBER 30: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots shouts instructions against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium in the second quarter on December 30, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
Jim Rogash/Getty Images
OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistDecember 10, 2013

The New England Patriots have beaten the Miami Dolphins seven times in a row, but they're also 0-5-1 against the spread the last six times they've been lined as road favorites.

Meanwhile, Miami is 5-1-1 ATS its last seven games as home dogs as it prepares to host New England as a short favorite for Sunday's Week 15 AFC East battle.

 

Point spread: Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 45.5 (line updates and matchup report).

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.7-22.0 Patriots

 

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England can pull wins out of their rear ends like few other teams in the league. Last week, the Patriots trailed visiting Cleveland all day, then scored with a minute left, got an onside kick and a pass interference call and scored again to steal a 27-26 victory from the Browns.

New England ranks eighth in the league in total offense and fifth in scoring, and apparently, it holds some kind of mind meld over Miami. The Patriots have won seven straight against Miami and covered five spreads.

 

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Miami pulled off a tough win at Pittsburgh last week and, at 7-6, trails Baltimore by just a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. Statistically speaking, the Dolphins aren't much to speak of, but they're getting good play from young Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and decent play from their defense.

Miami has played a lot of close games this year and has managed to win most of them. Also, the 'Fins won't have to deal with Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a nasty knee injury against Cleveland.

 

Smart Pick

Odds Shark's computer is predicting a New England victory and cover in a game that goes OVER its total. But the Patriots were very fortunate to win last week against an inferior Cleveland team.

And Miami is better than the Browns. New England has held the upper hand in this rivalry as of late. Maybe it's time for the Dolphins to turn things around. Take Miami.

 

Trends

  • Patriots are 7-0 straight up, 5-1-1 ATS past seven games vs. the Dolphins
  • Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS past six times as road favorites
  • Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS past seven games as home underdogs
  • UNDER is 7-1 past eight Miami divisional games

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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