Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

In a battle between two old franchises that don't meet very often, the Chicago Bears come off a big home win over Dallas on Monday night and make a short trip to Cleveland.

The Browns are reeling after choking away the New England game and hope the recent trend of home teams winning in this series will help them recover.

Point spread: The line and total for this game were off the board as of Tuesday morning pending injury updates. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 22.3-18.2 Bears

 

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Quarterback Josh McCown is making a case to be a starter somewhere in this league. On Monday night, he threw four touchdown passes without an interception against Dallas, and on the season, he's completed 67 percent of his throws, with 13 scores and just one interception.

Chicago ranks seventh in the league in offense and second in scoring at 28 points per game. When was the last time the Bears averaged 28 PPG for a season?

 

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland has lost four games in a row but outplayed the Patriots in Foxboro last week, losing only thanks to an onside kick and a brutal pass interference call. The Brownies also got another good game from QB Jason Campbell, who's now (unofficially) 4-for-5 on quality starts this season.

And their defense ranks seventh overall, fourth against the run, after holding the vaunted Patriots to 14 points through the first 59 minutes of play Sunday. These teams have met just three times, but the home team has won and covered all three.

 

Smart Pick

Odds Shark's NFL computer foresees a Bears victory. Chicago gets the edge on offense in this matchup, but Cleveland has the advantage on defense. McCown has been great, but Campbell hasn't been too bad himself.

These teams are separated by three games in the win-loss columns, but they're closer than that on the field. In a tough call, go with the team with the better defense, and that means Cleveland.

 

Trends:

  • Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on the road
  • Home team won and covered all three prior meetings of these teams
  • Browns are 2-7 SU and ATS past nine games vs NFC North teams

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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