Lakers at Nuggets: Nuggets to Keep Season Alive Tonight

Greg RiotAnalyst IMay 29, 2009

LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 27:  Lamar Odom #7 of the Los Angeles Lakers grabs the ball as he rolls over Linas Kleiza #43 of the Denver Nuggets as J.R. Smith #1 of the Nuggets goes for the ball in the fourth quarter of Game Five of the Western Conference Finals during the 2009 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center on May 27, 2009 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

Nuggets To Cover Spread, Keep Season Alive Tonight – Lakers at Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets (64-33 SU, 57-39-1 ATS, 49-48 O/U) will be looking to keep their season alive and force a Game 7 when they host the Los Angeles Lakers (76-23 SU, 51-48 ATS, 47-51-1 O/U) in Game 6 of their Western Conference Finals showdown tonight at 9 PM ET.

The Lakers took control in the fourth quarter to beat the Nuggets 103-94 in Game 5 on Wednesday to take a 3-2 lead in the series and can finish off their Western Conference counterparts with a big road win tonight.

The Lakers covered the spread for BetUS NBA betting members as a 6.5-point favorite while the 197 combined points played Under the 209.5-point O/U total in the BetUS Sportsbook.

Multi-talented, but underachieving forward Lamar Odom came alive in Game 5 to record a solid double-double with 19 points and 14 rebounds while superstar shooting guard Kobe Bryant poured in a team-high 22 points.

Carmelo Anthony scored a game-high 31 points with four rebounds and four assists in the loss for the Nuggets.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NBA Free Picks.

The Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.

The Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.

The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

The Under is 9-1 in Lakers last 10 Conference Finals games.

The Under is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.

The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

The Lakers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

NBA Odds

Los Angeles Lakers +5½ -110

Denver Nuggets -5½ -110

Over 209 -110

Under 209 -110

Analysis: Okay BetUS NBA sports betting fanatics, after absolutely giving away Games 1 and 3 in this series, the upstart Nuggets are just one game away from elimination, thanks, in large part to their fourth quarter collapses and Kobe Bryant’s late-game heroics.

Tonight, however, I like the Nuggets to cover the spread with a huge home win that will keep their season alive for at least one more game.

While the Lakers have gone a solid 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and identical 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, I love the fact that Denver has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss. This shows their ability to bounce back from defeat in a big way while also going a spotless 7-0 ATS in their last seven playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, meaning they win and cover when they’re supposed to.

Yes, the Lakers have gone a bankroll-boosting 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, but those numbers just don’t compare to Denver’s 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.

NBA Sportsbook bettors should also look to stay the course with the Under tonight as it has gone a blistering 9-1 in the Lakers’ last 10 Conference Finals games and 5-1 in Denver’s last six games against Pacific division teams, not to mention a very nice 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.

The fact of the matter BetUS NBA sports betting members is that the Nuggets have outplayed the Lakers for the majority of this series even if they fell apart late in some games and trail entering tonight’s contest.

With Chauncey Billups’ veteran leadership on full display, I like the Nuggets to win and cover the spread while this game plays Under the set O/U total.

NBA Free Picks: Nuggets -5½ Points/Under 209 Total Points