NFL Week 14 Predictions: Best Bets Against the Spread

Alex Kay@AlexPKayCorrespondent IDecember 6, 2013

November 17, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid (left) talks to quarterback Alex Smith (11) during the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs 27-17. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Sunday slate for Week 14 of the 2013 NFL season is just around the corner. It’s an exciting week, especially with fantasy football playoffs beginning and the actual postseason picture finally taking shape.

Perhaps the only way to make this Sunday more thrilling is to place a wager down on the action in some—or all—of the marquee games on tap.

Let’s take a look at the updated lines so you can make an informed decision, check out my picks for the winner of each contest against the spread, plus highlight a handful of can’t-miss games you will want to get behind with a big bet.

NFL Week 14 Lines and Predictions
Away TeamHome TeamSpreadPrediction (ATS)
Kansas City ChiefsWashington RedskinsKC -3KC
Minnesota VikingsBaltimore RavensBAL -6.5BAL
Cleveland BrownsNew England PatriotsNE -10CLE
Oakland RaidersNew York JetsNYJ -2.5NYJ
Indianapolis ColtsCincinnati BengalsCIN -6CIN
Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay PackersN/AN/A
Detroit LionsPhiladelphia EaglesPHI -2.5PHI
Miami DolphinsPittsburgh SteelersPIT -3PIT
Buffalo BillsTampa Bay BuccaneersTB -2.5TB
Tennessee TitansDenver BroncosDEN -12TEN
St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsARI -6STL
New York GiantsSan Diego ChargersSD -3NYG
Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersSF -2.5SEA
New Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersNO -3NO
Dallas CowboysChicago BearsCHI -1DAL


Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over Washington Redskins

The Chiefs may be struggling as of late, but this team has what it takes to turn it around against a collapsing Redskins squad.

One of the main reasons Kansas City will be able to build an early lead and maintain it is turnover differential. It leads the league in that department, having forced 26 takeaways compared to just 12 giveaways. Head coach Andy Reid preaches ball security and has his players practice it with immense discipline and success, which is not something that Mike Shanahan—the beleaguered head coach of Washington—and his side can say.

The Redskins’ turnover differential is an unimpressive minus-two. They’ve recorded just 18 turnovers through 12 games but have coughed up the ball 20 times.

Dec 1, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Quintin Demps (35) intercepts a pass intended for Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sport
John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Things have been especially bad for the 'Skins during the current four-game losing streak. They’ve averaged just 16.5 points per contest during that span and had a number of locker room issues spill out into the public forum.

Kansas City may have lost three in a row, but it still looks bound for the playoffs and doesn’t boast a splintered roster. This group just had to navigate a tough schedule—playing the elite Denver Broncos twice and on the receiving end of a great performance by the San Diego Chargers—and is due for a bounce back on Sunday.

Giving just three points is an absolute steal for the Chiefs and looks to be a bet that most bettors should jump to back. Take the chalk and get paid after K.C. runs away with a blowout victory.


New Orleans Saints (-3) over Carolina Panthers

The Saints are ready for revenge after being thoroughly routed and embarrassed by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football in Week 14. They have a chance to atone for that performance in another prime-time matchup, this time on Sunday Night Football against the NFC South rival Panthers.

The biggest difference in this one is that the Saints will be playing in the confines of the Superdome. They are currently 6-0 straight up in the building and 5-0-1 against the spread, proving that they are one of the hardest teams to beat—or even keep it close against—when playing with home-field advantage.

Carolina is a mediocre road squad, going 3-3 this year against the spread and looking quite beatable in recent weeks. Both the Miami Dolphins, playing at home, and the New England Patriots, on the road, had a chance to overcome the Panthers in the waning minutes of their respective contests, but they ultimately fell just a bit short.

It’s time for them to finally falter, as the Saints will be playing with a chip on their shoulder, have a noisy crowd on their side and traditionally rebound well after a letdown performance. They bounced back from a 30-27 loss to the Patriots with a 35-17 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills and crushed the Dallas Cowboys, 49-17, after a surprise 26-20 upset by the New York Jets.

Expect Drew Brees to rally his offense for a big performance and the defense in the Big Easy to clamp down, humbling the Panthers by a large margin and ending their winning streak in Week 14.