BCS Championship 2013: Forecasting the Best Potential Matchups

Sean HojnackiFeatured ColumnistDecember 6, 2013

Florida State dropped 80 on Idaho. We might as well let them play for a title.
Florida State dropped 80 on Idaho. We might as well let them play for a title.Jeff Gammons/Getty Images

Following a zany November that transformed the BCS title picture, the Florida State Seminoles sit atop the national rankings as a comfortable No. 1. That's what happens when you score the second-most points in the nation (53.7) and give up the fewest (11.0).

Because Florida State plays in the ACC, the Seminoles get to face Duke University, which is not known for its football program. Thus, FSU is favored by four touchdowns.

Led by Heisman front-runner Jameis Winston, the Seminoles have steamrolled opponents, including a 54-6 thrashing of Bethune-Cookman and an 80-point display against Idaho. Winston has completed 68.8 percent of his passes, amassed 3,490 yards and tossed a whopping 35 touchdowns to only eight interceptions.

It's hard to deny that the Seminoles have been the best football team this season, and it's a shame they won't get to play Alabama. Instead, here are the most likely scenarios for the BCS National Championship.


Florida State vs. Ohio State

Bovada has this at 4-7 odds. Those are really strong odds! The Seminoles are virtually assured of victory against the Blue Devils, and Vegas clearly thinks the Buckeyes will handle Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Braxton Miller has accounted for 29 TDs this season.
Braxton Miller has accounted for 29 TDs this season.Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

This would be a matchup of similar teams with strong defenses and ridiculously strong offenses. The Seminoles launch their attack through the air, while the Buckeyes like to keep it on the ground. The smart money would probably be with the over in this one, and while it would be a fun game to watch, it lacks the smash-mouth credibility that an SEC contender provides. 


Florida State vs. Auburn

Auburn remains the No. 1 team in the nation in the eyes of some fans, mainly SEC fans, by virtue of the stunning win over Alabama. The Tigers handed Bama only its second loss in the last 30 games going back to Nov. 5, 2011.

Nick Marshall is a QB who runs with authority.
Nick Marshall is a QB who runs with authority.Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

It would be interesting to see if Gus Malzahn and his charges can take down another vaunted team, and that could happen if the Buckeyes fall to the Spartans in the Big Ten title game. 


Florida State vs. Missouri

If the Missouri Tigers can outlast the Auburn Tigers for the SEC crown and the Buckeyes fall as well, Mizzou will be playing for a national title. It's been an incredible rebound for the Tigers after going just 5-7 last season, and they've made this remarkable run on the back of their defense. 

Missouri's tough defense crunched Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M.
Missouri's tough defense crunched Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M.Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

According to Bovada, Florida State would be favored by at least 10 points in any of these three matchups and just shy of two touchdowns against Mizzou. Sorry to everyone back in Columbia, Mo.


Ohio State vs. Auburn/Missouri

If Florida State loses to Duke in the ACC title game, all heck will break loose. In that scenario, I say we let Northern Illinois play Ohio State in a match of the final unbeatens, but the title game would instead be between the Buckeyes and the winner of the SEC championship.

Because of Ohio State's tough run game, this might actually be a more enjoyable match of styles. Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall and running back Tre Mason have run wild for Auburn, and it would provide a great counterpoint to the QB-RB combo of Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde for the Buckeyes.

Tre Mason has been a machine this year.
Tre Mason has been a machine this year.Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

OSU against Mizzou would be the least attractive matchup of the bunch, but if Missouri's D can hold down Auburn's offense, perhaps it can hold down Ohio State, too. 


Other Scenarios

If both OSU and FSU somehow lose this weekend, things would get very interesting indeed, but those are extremely long odds. If both of the top undefeated teams lose and Auburn snags the SEC title, it would end up being a rematch of this year's epic Iron Bowl in the BCS National Championship. 

Of course, most fans would welcome a rematch of Alabama and Auburn, but that's not how the cookie crumbled this year, so it will require a surprising series of events.

With the SEC constructed in divisions, the loss to Auburn all but slammed the window shut on the dream of yet another national championship for the Crimson Tide. 

Regardless, it seems extremely likely that the Seminoles will be competing in the BCS title game, and when they do, they'll come in as heavy favorites. Your move, Buckeyes.