Seven of past eight meetings between the Titans and the Broncos have played over the posted total, and that over angle has prevailed in seven of eight when the Broncos are double-digit favorites.
Meanwhile, Denver is on a 5-1 against-the-spread run against the Titans.
Point spread: Broncos opened as 12-point favorites; the total was 50.5. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 36.6-25.1 Broncos
Why the Titans can cover the spread
Tennessee has a better road record than it does at home. The Titans are just 2-4 in Nashville this year, but they are 3-3 on the highway. They come in after a tough-to-swallow loss at Indianapolis and will be looking to avenge the setback by getting up for this game in the Mile High City.
Tennessee has won just twice in its last eight games—both were on the road, where they are riding a 5-1 ATS streak.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
With a tough stretch out of the way for now, the Broncos might find themselves in a comfort zone here. Since suffering their first loss of the season on Oct. 20 in Indianapolis, the Broncos are 4-1 and have averaged 33.2 points per game against the likes of Washington, San Diego, New England and Kansas City (twice).
Forget both sides in this game, as there's no telling how far open the backdoor may be for the Titans. Instead, look at the total here, as the over looks like a value number, especially based on the aforementioned trend, and, the fact the over is on a 7-0-1 run when the Broncos are installed as double-digit home chalk.
- Seven of past eight meetings played OVER the total
- Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. Titans
- OVER is 7-0-1 past eight games when Broncos are double-digit home chalk
- The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their past six road games (lost last week at Indy)