Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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The Oakland Raiders haven't exactly been known as road warriors over recent seasons, but they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games on the hotel circuit.

Oakland is in New Jersey as the underdog this week to take on the punchless Jets.

 

Point spread: Jets opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 15.1-10.6 Raiders

 

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

Oakland is only 4-8 straight up this season, but in keeping things close for the most part, it's also 7-4-1 ATS. The Raiders rank fifth in the league in rushing and 10th vs. the run, out-grounding foes by an average of 30 yards per game.

In the NFL, teams that win the ground battle cover the spread about 65 percent of the time. Also, Oakland is working on a couple extra days off after losing 31-24 (but covering at +10) at Dallas Thanksgiving Day.

The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in seven recent road games and 9-4 ATS overall this season.

 

Why the Jets can cover the spread

New York, in part by necessity, ranks 10th in the league in rushing at 125 yards per game. Defensively, the Jets lead the league against the run, allowing just 77 yards per game on the ground. As mentioned above, out-rushing your opponents often leads to covering spreads.

If New York could just get something out of the QB position, whether from rookie Geno Smith or Matt Simms, it might still have a shot at that second AFC wild-card berth.

 

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting an Oakland outright victory in a game that stays UNDER its total. New York is a mess at QB; we've seen some rookie quarterbacks struggle, but few like Smith. Oakland has QB issues of its own, but at least it has observed some progress from its rookie, Matt McGloin.

Regardless of who plays QB for either team, take the Raiders and the points.

 

Trends:

  • Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
  • Oakland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games.
  • The Jets are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games when playing Oakland.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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