Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistDecember 4, 2013

MIAMI - OCTOBER 24:  Running back Mewelde Moore #21  is tackled by safety Chris Clemons #30  of the Miami at Sun Life Stadium on October 24, 2010 in Miami, Florida.  (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)
Marc Serota/Getty Images

The Miami Dolphins have lost their last five games against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sunday would be a fine time for the 'Fins to snap that streak, as they head to Heinz Field to take on Pittsburgh.


Point spread

The Steelers opened as 4.0-point favorites; the total was 41.5 (line updates and matchup report, via Odds Shark).


Odds Shark computer prediction: 20.4-18.9 Dolphins


Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

At 6-6, Miami is still in the thick of that battle for that second AFC Wild Card spot. Last week, the Dolphins held the Jets to 177 yards of offense in a 23-3 victory. Statistically speaking, Miami ranks slightly above average on defense and a little below average on offense.

Maybe that's why they've played so many close games. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has completed 65 percent of his throws over his last four games.

Also, the Dolphins are very tough as small dogs, going 7-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the past eight games as an underdog of three points or less.


Why the Steelers can cover the spread

After its 0-4 start to this season, Pittsburgh has won five of its last eight games. Thanksgiving night in Baltimore, the Steelers were a two-point conversion away from forcing overtime in a 22-20 loss.

For the season, Pittsburgh ranks 15th in total offense, 13th in total defense and ninth in time of possession. The Steelers have also won and covered their last three home games.

The Steelers have won five straight vs. Miami.


Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is picking Miami to upset Pittsburgh in a game that stays UNDER its total. The Steelers seem to hold a short edge on the Dolphins in both offense and defense, and they're at home.

But Miami has played a lot of close games this season and three points can come in handy when trying to cover point spreads in close games. Take the Fish plus the points.



  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 22 games on the road.
  • The Dolphins have lost five straight SU to Pittsburgh.
  • The Dolphins are 7-1 SU and ATS in their past eight games as a dog of three or less.


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