The Cincinnati Bengals have enjoyed their home-field advantage as of late, going 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as home chalk. The Indianapolis Colts are 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings with the Bengals.
Cincy hosts Indy on Sunday afternoon, laying five points in a game in which the computer picks them to win by five.
Point spread: Bengals opened as 5.5-point favorites; the total was 44. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 26.4-21.4 Bengals
Why the Colts can cover the spread
Indy has lost in blowout fashion a couple of times in recent weeks, but it's also ground out a pair of victories over Tennessee to keep its lead in the AFC South at a healthy three games. Statistically speaking, the Colts aren't much to speak of, ranking 20th in offense and 22nd in defense. But in a season and three-quarters with Andrew Luck at quarterback, Indy is 19-9 SU, 18-10 ATS.
They have also beaten the Bengals seven of eight tries dating back to 1989.
Why the Bengals can cover the spread
Cincinnati just keeps plugging along, bouncing back from losing two tough games in a row to winning two straight after beating the Chargers on Sunday 17-10. So, the Bengals still lead the AFC North by two games over Baltimore.
Cincinnati ranks 12th in the league in offense, sixth in total defense and fifth in average time of possession. In the NFL, teams that win the time-of-possession battle cover the spread in almost 70 percent of games.
The Odds Shark NFL picks computer predicts the Bengals to win but the Colts to cover in a game that goes OVER its total. However, Cincy is simply the better team here. The Bengals are better on defense, better against the run and better at holding the ball. Give the points to Cincinnati.
- Colts are 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS past eight games vs. Bengals
- Bengals are 2-6 ATS past eight at home to Colts since 1989
- Bengals 5-1 ATS past six as home favorite