Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 4, 2013

The Buffalo Bills are just 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games and 0-5 ATS at Tampa Bay.

They'll try to put the brakes on both trends Sunday when they visit the Buccaneers.

 

Point spread

The Buccaneers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 (line updates and matchup report, via Odds Shark).

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 17.7-15.5 Bills

 

Why the Bills can cover the spread

With EJ Manuel back behind center, Buffalo has scored 68 points in its last two games. The Bills rank fourth in the league in rushing at 139 yards per game, which is a good sign when you're trying to cover point spreads. That hasn't been happening recently, but as long as C.J. Spiller, who just ran for 149 yards against Atlanta, is getting some carries, Buffalo has a chance.

In the three games in which Spiller has rushed 16 or more times this year, the Bills are 3-0 ATS.

 

Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Tampa started 0-8 this year, but five of those losses came by one score or less. Now, the Bucs have won three games, as rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has gotten his feet underneath him.

Over his last seven games, Glennon has thrown 10 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. Tampa didn't look too good Sunday, losing at Carolina, but the Panthers are on a roll, so the Bucs can be forgiven.

They have also covered five of six meetings with the Bills.

 

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is calling for Buffalo to pull off an upset in a game that stays UNDER its total. But Tampa lost several close games earlier this season and has now won three of its last four. Expect the Bucs to bounce back after the loss at Carolina and to win and cover Sunday.

 

Trends

  • Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last five games at Tampa Bay.
    Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
    Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing Buffalo.     

 

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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