Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons, for whatever reasons, have had success at Lambeau Field over the years, going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven visits to Titletown.

On Sunday, Atlanta is in Green Bay for a game with the slumping Packers, whose line remained off the board as of Wednesday due to injury uncertainty.

 

Point spread: This game remained off the board (no spread or total) as of Wednesday at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 22.3-17.0 Packers (prediction factors in Aaron Rodgers in the lineup, watch for injury updates)

 

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta was performing terribly, losing five games in a row, but the Falcons had a couple of late breaks to beat Buffalo in Toronto last Sunday, 34-31 in overtime. The Falcons showed some life against the Bills, rushing for 151 yards and getting one of quarterback Matt Ryan's better performances of the season.

Running back Stephen Jackson had his best effort for his new team, and the defense, maligned for much of this season, forced the two turnovers that saved and won the game.

 

Why the Packers can cover the spread

This is a tough one, because Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers is a completely different team. You wouldn't think Rodgers' absence would affect the Packers defense, but apparently it has. They can't stop anybody lately.

But Matt Flynn is still capable at QB. RB Eddie Lacy is capable of going for 100 yards almost any Sunday, and the defense can't be any worse than it's been recently. They remain 8-2-1 ATS at home, but Flynn did not build that profitable streak.

 

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is picking Green Bay to win, and if Rodgers plays, the Packers would be the play. But at the moment, the way they're going, there's just no justification to recommend Green Bay.

Take the Falcons.

 

Trends:

  • Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games at Green Bay
  • Atlanta is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Green Bay is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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