Stanford vs. Arizona State: Pac-12 Championship Betting Odds Analysis, Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 3, 2013

STANFORD, CA - SEPTEMBER 21:  Wide receiver Jaelen Strong #21 of the Arizona State Sun Devils carries the ball during the first quarter against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium on September 21, 2013 in Stanford, California. (Photo by Stephen Lam/Getty Images)
Stephen Lam/Getty Images

If there is one game Arizona State would like to have back, it would be its loss to Stanford on September 21. On Saturday, the Sun Devils have a chance to exact revenge in the Pac 12 conference championship, and they are favored to do it.

Point spread: Arizona State opened as three-point favorites on the Pac-12 Championship Game odds menu; the total was 56 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 35-31 Arizona State

 

Why Stanford can cover the spread

The Cardinal already beat ASU once this season, albeit in Palo Alto, in the third game of the season for both teams. After opening up a 29-0 halftime lead, Stanford coasted to a 42-28 win. The Cardinal defense has been the catalyst in most of its wins this season. When it is playing very well, there is no scoring points on this team.

They also arrive riding an 8-1 against the spread streak as an underdog, according to Odds Shark.

 

Why Arizona State can cover the spread

Though the final score in the first meeting was a double-digit win, what it doesn't indicate is the never-give-up will the Sun Devils played with. Since opening the season 3-2, the Devils have won seven straight by an average final of 44-21, scoring 44 or more in five of those games.

Mix in revenge with that kind of offensive prowess, and you can make an argument for the dog.

 

Smart Pick

Because this game is being played in Tempe, the Sun Devils are at an advantage with the 12th man in the stands. Stanford has proven it has one of the best stop units against spread attacks, but coach Todd Graham's Sun Devils are 7-0 straight up at home this season, while their margin of victory in Tempe is an average of 29.1 points per win.

 

Betting Trends

  • Stanford is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arizona State's last 14 games
  • Stanford is 8-1 ATS past nine games as underdog

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Sharkfollow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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