Florida State vs. Duke: ACC Championship Betting Odds Analysis and Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistDecember 3, 2013

GAINESVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 30:  Kelvin Benjamin #1 of the Florida State Seminoles runs for yardage during the game against the Florida Gators on November 30, 2013 in Gainesville, Florida.  (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

On paper, one wouldn't believe this is a conference championship when you see a 30-point spread. But that's what the Florida State Seminoles are laying to surprising Duke in this year's title game. 

Point spread: Florida State opened as 29-point favorite on the ACC Championship game odds menu, but the number was climbing already; the total was 61.5 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report) 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 68-38 Florida State


Why Duke can cover the spread

Because this is a championship game and the point spread is more than four touchdowns. You shouldn't need much more reason than that, regardless of the fact the Seminoles are clearly the better team.

The Blue Devils have won eight in a row and have covered seven straight en route to their first-ever ten-win season. This team is riding a lot of momentum to be giving it nearly 30 points.


Why Florida State can cover the spread

The Seminoles have beaten everybody on their schedule this season by double digits. In fact, they've covered 10 of their 12 games and virtually destroyed every opponent they came across.

As long as there are no legal issues getting in the way of redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston, he could very well produce a career game, knowing he'd solidify his status as the Heisman Trophy front-runner.

They have covered five straight big spreads against Duke and covered seven of nine this season when laying 20 or more points, according to OddsShark.com.


Smart Pick

We don't expect Duke to trade points against the Seminoles and match them drive-for-drive, but since this is the conference championship and the Blue Devils have gotten this far in their quest to prove the university is more than a basketball school, the underdog would appear to be the right side.

The computer gives FSU a 30-point margin of victory.


Betting Trends

  • Duke is 0-14 SU vs Florida State since 1995
  • Florida State has covered five straight vs. Duke, winning 220-77 in total points
  • Duke is 0-5 ATS as dog of 20-plus points since 2009
  • FSU is 7-2 ATS this season when favored by 20-plus points


Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Sharkfollow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.