Alabama was the SEC's big dog all season, but it's a cat fight in the SEC Championship Game as the Auburn Tigers opened as favorites against the Missouri Tigers.
Both teams have been money in the bank in conference action, but the computer likes Mizzou to keep smashing holes in an Auburn defense that has been battered in consecutive weeks.
Point spread: Auburn opened as two-point favorites in the SEC Championship Game odds menu; the total was 58 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 32-29 Missouri
Why Missouri can cover the spread
While Auburn is the team coming in off the shocking upset of two-time defending national champion Alabama, realistically, Missouri is the better team in this championship game. The Tigers have a severe defense that leads the SEC in sacks and interceptions and methodically wears teams down.
Why Auburn can cover the spread
One might simply say if the Tigers can beat a team that everyone said was unstoppable, why can't they beat the other Tigers in the SEC? Auburn is looking to continue this season's improbable run, as it has parlayed the biggest turnaround in SEC history—and in college football this season—into a potential shot at the BCS National Championship.
With a win at the Georgia Dome, the fairy tale continues. Recent history says they can win as favorites (11-0 straight up, 8-3 against the spread, according to Odds Shark).
The underdog is the wise choice, as Missouri has the better quarterback in senior James Franklin. The defense-reading signal-caller has piloted a well-orchestrated game plan all season and will be able to lead his talented supporting cast against Auburn's vulnerable defense.
How vulnerable? It allowed 1,027 yards in its last-second wins over Georgia and Alabama. These strokes of miraculous luck don't last forever.
- Missouri is 4-1 ATS in their past five games as underdogs
- Auburn is 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS past 11 games as favorites
- Missouri is 10-2 ATS in its past dozen conference games
- Auburn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven conference games