Rarely do oddsmakers install a 2-10 team as road favorites and they may have made a mistake in chalking the Houston Texans at Jacksonville. The Texans are 3-9 against the spread this season, while the Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
The schedule maker blew it when he set this AFC South battle for Thursday night.
Point spread: The Texans opened as three-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 13.6-7.1 Texans
Why the Texans can cover the spread
Houston is snake-bitten this year. In the Texans' 10 losses, seven have come by one score or less. Against New England on Sunday, the Texans led 17-7 at the half and by a field goal in the fourth quarter, only to allow the Patriots to rally for the victory.
Houston still ranks 10th in the league in total offense, third in total defense and sixth in average time of possession. How the Texans aren't winning some of these games is a bit of a mystery.
Why the Jaguars can cover the spread
Jacksonville started 0-8 this season but has won three of its last four games. Sunday, in Cleveland, the Jags ran for 112 yards and got a Chad Henne TD pass to Cecil Shorts with 40 seconds left for a 32-28 victory.
By the numbers, Jacksonville is terrible, ranking dead last in offense and 25th in total defense. But their recent spurt indicates the Jags haven't given up on this season yet.
Getting them as home underdogs might be a good deal.
Odds Shark's computer is predicting a Houston victory and cover in a game that plays UNDER its total. Before losing 13-6 to the Jags two weeks ago, the Texans had won the previous five games in this series.
And statistically speaking, Houston is the much better team. Give the points and go with the computer.
Houston is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games
Jacksonville is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games