Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs That Will Cover Your Bet

Alex KayCorrespondent IDecember 2, 2013

Dec 1, 2013; Cleveland, OH, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts (84) catches the game winning pass in the end zone while being defended by Cleveland Browns cornerback Joe Haden (23) in the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14 of the 2013 NFL season will be here before you know it, which is why it is wise to get started on your bets early.

The opening lines will almost certainly shift from what they have been set at, although how drastically remains to be seen. Regardless, if there is a number you like—don’t hesitate to pounce.

If you are still unsure about which way to lean this week, consider the underdogs. These plays may not look that great on paper, but there are some quality teams getting points that sharp bettors will be all over.

Let’s take a look at the opening line for each Week 14 game, predict a winner for each and then highlight a couple of ‘dogs that are almost guaranteed to cover the spread.

Away TeamHome TeamSpreadPrediction (ATS)
Houston TexansJacksonville JaguarsHOU -3JAX
Kansas City ChiefsWashington RedskinsKC -2KC
Minnesota VikingsBaltimore RavensBAL -7BAL
Cleveland BrownsNew England PatriotsNE -10CLE
Oakland RaidersNew York JetsNYJ -3NYJ
Indianapolis ColtsCincinnati BengalsCIN -5.5CIN
Atlanta FalconsGreen Bay PackersN/AN/A
Detroit LionsPhiladelphia EaglesPHI -2.5PHI
Miami DolphinsPittsburgh SteelersPIT -3PIT
Buffalo BillsTampa Bay BuccaneersTB -2.5TB
Tennessee TitansDenver BroncosDEN -12.5TEN
St. Louis RamsArizona CardinalsARI -6STL
New York GiantsSan Diego ChargersSD -3.5NYG
Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ersSF -1.5SEA
New Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersNO -3.5NO


Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Houston Texans

CLEVELAND, OH - DECEMBER 01:  Quarterback Chad Henne #7 of the Jacksonville Jaguars throws to a receiver against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium on December 1, 2013 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)
Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

Don’t look now, but after an ugly start, the Jacksonville Jaguars are rolling. This team has won two straight and three of its last four matchups heading into this Thursday Night Football showdown with Houston.

Somehow the Jags are getting points at home against arguably the NFL’s worst team—one that they already beat on the road this season—which should make this contest more enticing than the coin-flip bet it has been in 2013.

While Jacksonville is 0-4 as a ‘dog at EverBank Field, the rest of the league is 32-30 against the spread in that situation.

Expect the Jags to move to 1-4 ATS as a home underdog by the end of Thursday evening. They are clearly the hotter squad and look ready to send the Texans to the top of the draft order.

Nov 24, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Case Keenum (7) walks off the field after a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Reliant Stadium. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 13-6. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville doesn’t appear to be the same team it was earlier this campaign, as evidenced by a game-winning drive in Week 13. The squad gave up an unfortunate 95-yard touchdown to Josh Gordon of the Cleveland Browns to fall behind with little time left on the clock.

However, Chad Henne led his team on a march down the field and eventually connected with Cecil Shorts III for a touchdown with 40 seconds left to seal a 32-28 victory.

That showed this group’s newfound resolve, especially considering the comeback happened in a hostile FirstEnergy Stadium.

Nov 24, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne (7) and center Brad Meester (63) signal before a play during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Going up against a Texans team that has no heart or resolve and has been openly criticized by two of its own players—veteran safety Ed Reed was cut after his comments a few weeks ago, while star receiver Andre Johnson stated “we suck” following the team’s Week 12 loss to Jacksonville—things finally look good for the Jags on national television.

Don’t be afraid to back the Jaguars big as their defense looks to once again hold Houston to less than a touchdown, while the offense puts a respectable number of points on the board.


St. Louis Rams (+6) over Arizona Cardinals

December 1, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; St. Louis Rams head coach Jeff Fisher looks on against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Candlestick Park. The 49ers defeated the Rams 23-13. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Rams have been a great bet against Arizona lately, winning three straight matchups against their NFC West rival. While St. Louis may have a hard time pushing that streak to four-straight come Sunday, there is almost no doubt that it will cover the spread given six additional points.

The Cardinals are a tough opponent this year and often aren’t given the proper respect they deserve as a quality team, but they may be getting a bit too much from the oddsmakers in Week 14.

Turnovers will be the key to this game, as the team that forces them and is able to avoid committing them will end up the victor.

This stacks in St. Louis’ favor, as Arizona is an extremely turnover-prone squad. The Cards have given the rock away a whopping 24 times in 2013, tied for the fourth-most in the league.

They’ll be going up against an opportunistic Rams defense—led by superstar pass-rusher Robert Quinn—that has forced 23 turnovers, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

Nov 24, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams defensive end Robert Quinn (94) celebrates with defensive end Chris Long (91) after returning a fumble for a 31 yard touchdown during the second half against the Chicago Bears at the Edward Jones Dome. St.
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The turnover differential between these two rivals is staggering, with the Rams standing at plus-eight through 12 games, while the Red Birds are at negative-one. When two sides are this evenly matched, an interception or forced fumble is likely going to be the difference between a win and a loss.

Given that the statistics show the Cardinals are much more likely to commit that error, it’s a safe bet to fade them at home this week. This contest is likely going to be decided by a field goal or less regardless, so take the six points and get paid with the Rams.