Week 13 of the NFL season will feature a number of games that will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers are predicting.
The great thing about picking games against the spread is that you do not always have to be right with your prediction about which side is going to win. All you need is a large line that gives the underdog a lot of room to work with.
Here is a look at point spreads that are too big and the underdogs who will have little problem covering them.
Note: All spread info courtesy of Vegas Insider as of Nov. 28.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) over Cleveland Browns
It is becoming clear that the Jaguars are better than people have given them credit for over the past few weeks. They have won two of the last three games, with both victories coming on the road.
With a confident roster of players, the team should be able to keep the momentum going against the Cleveland Browns and Brandon Weeden, who will start Sunday due to an injury to Jason Campbell, via ESPN.
Weeden has made four starts this season and lost them all. He ranks 33rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in quarterback rating and is dead last in completion percentage. With the second-year player under center, the Browns will struggle to put many points on the board.
While Chad Henne has not been much better this season, he will do enough to at least keep the final score within a touchdown.
St. Louis Rams (+8.5) over San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are the better team in this matchup, but this spread might be too big for the home team to cover.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has struggled against good defenses this year, and the Rams have a solid one. The unit has one of the best pass rushes in the NFL, which could lead to problems for the indecisive passer.
Even if Michael Crabtree does play, he is unlikely to contribute much in his first game of the year, and the game should remain low scoring.
Meanwhile, the Rams can run the ball well with both Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham, and this should allow the squad to control the clock. After the 49ers were forced to travel across the country and have a short week, this could be a closer game than many think.
Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over San Diego Chargers
This is not a huge line, but the Bengals should win this battle outright on Sunday.
Philip Rivers looked excellent against the Kansas City Chiefs a week ago, but this was after both Justin Houston and Tamba Hali left the game with injuries. Without a legitimate pass rush, the quarterback was able to sit back and torch the secondary.
Even without Geno Atkins, the Bengals still have an elite pass rush, which will slow down the Chargers' offensive attack.
On the other hand, the Chargers have little on defense that can stop the connection between Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Cincinnati has a dynamic group of players on offense that should rack up the points to win on the road.
|NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread|
|Tennessee Titans||Indianapolis Colts||IND -4||Colts|
|Denver Broncos||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN -5.5||Broncos|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||Cleveland Browns||CLE -7||Jaguars|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||Carolina Panthers||CAR -8.5||Panthers|
|Chicago Bears||Minnesota Vikings||MIN -1||Bears|
|Arizona Cardinals||Philadelphia Eagles||PHI -3.5||Eagles|
|Miami Dolphins||New York Jets||NYJ -2||Jets|
|Atlanta Falcons||Buffalo Bills||BUF -3||Bills|
|St. Louis Rams||San Francisco 49ers||SF -8.5||Rams|
|New England Patriots||Houston Texans||NE -7.5||Patriots|
|Cincinnati Bengals||San Diego Chargers||SD -1||Bengals|
|New York Giants||Washington Redskins||NYG -1.5||Redskins|
|New Orleans Saints||Seattle Seahawks||SEA -4.5||Saints|
|Spread info courtesy of Vegas Insider|
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