Through all the hype surrounding Johnny Manziel, one negative fact continues to ring true when it comes to the Texas A&M Aggies: They don’t cover spread as road underdogs. And another non-hyped fact about the Missouri Tigers: They do cover spreads at home.
The Odds Shark prediction computer supports that fact in this matchup.
Point spread: Texas A&M opened as 3.5-point underdogs but it was climbing midweek at most sportsbooks; the total was 66.5 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 40-35 Missouri
Why Texas A&M can cover the spread
Because we're talking about a perceived offensive slugfest, the Aggies always have a shot with Johnny Manziel leading the charge. They'll be looking to regenerate an offense that was held to a season-low 10 points last week in a 24-point setback at LSU.
Prior to last week, A&M had scored at least 41 points in every game.
Why Missouri can cover the spread
As good as the Aggies are on offense, this Missouri team is just as explosive. Only twice this season has it scored less than 31 points, including last week's 24-10 win at Mississippi. This one being the season finale,and at Columbia, the Tigers aren't about to let Johnny Football steal the show.
They have been a reliable home bet lately, covering five of six games.
The oddsmakers continue to give Manziel and the Aggies respect, and that's fine, but Missouri laying such a low number is a gift, especially at home. The Tigers are still steaming from a three-point loss here to South Carolina and have won their last three by an average margin of 24.3 points per win.
- Texas A&M is 1-7 ATS in eight recent games as road underdogs
- The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their past six home games