UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 26, 2013

PASADENA, CA - NOVEMBER 17:  Brett Hundley #17 of the UCLA Bruins scrambles out of the pocket as he is chased by Morgan Breslin #91 of the USC Trojans during the third quarter at Rose Bowl on November 17, 2012 in Pasadena, California.  The UCLA Bruins won 38-28.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images

The UCLA Bruins ended a five-game losing streak to USC last season, and they lay just a few points behind on the road here. But the Trojans have been taking care of business against conference foes, winning and covering six straight in the Pac-12.

They seem to be a solid bet, as they give just a field goal to the Bruins in the point spread.

Point spread: UCLA opened as 3.5-point underdogs in this Pac-12 clash; the total was 51.5. (Line updates and matchup report can be found here.)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 37-35, UCLA

 

Why UCLA can cover the spread

Specifically, quarterback Brett Hundley: He has the edge over Southern Cal's Cody Kessler, who will make his first appearance in the rivalry. He was spectacular in last year's 38-28 win over the Trojans. Hundley, who completed 22 of 30 pass attempts for 234 yards and a touchdown and rushed for two more scores, will come in confident with his offense.

UCLA's win last year provides the confidence to win outright here as small underdogs.

 

Why USC can cover the spread

This is a revenge game for the resurgent Trojans, who had their five-game win streak in the series snapped with the 10-point loss in Pasadena last November. And even though he was still an assistant last year, interim coach Ed Orgeron knows how important this game is in Los Angeles.

The Trojans have won and covered six straight conference games.

 

Smart Pick

Not only has USC turned its season around and is playing much differently under Orgeron than it had been under ousted coach Lane Kiffin, but the Trojans will also receive a boost with the return of All-American wide receiver Marqise Lee, who has been nursing a shin injury. This offense will be revved up for this one.

 

Trends:

  • UCLA snapped a five-game USC losing skid last season.
  • Six of the past seven meetings of these teams played UNDER the total.
  • USC is 6-0 straight up and against the spread vs. Pac-12 competition lately.

 

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