How NFL Statistics Lead to Wins, Pt. 2: Quantifying Player Stats into Wins

(That may be not fully correct, though; Rivers is benefited from playing with one of the best running backs in the game in LaDanian Tomlinson, as well as Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. The figures shown below are not team-independent, per se, as it’s nearly impossible to separate Rivers from his receivers, running backs, coaching staff, or playbook.)

 
For quarterbacks, fumble rate was defined as fumbles ÷ (incompletions + sacks + rush attempts). I included rushing yards, but took out rushing touchdowns because some quarterbacks—such as Kyle Orton, who has three rushing touchdowns in 24 attempts—have such high rushing touchdown rates that it completely skews their wins total; as well, most quarterback rushing touchdowns are from inside the five-yard-line and are a result of other factors that lead the possession to the five—e.g., the quarterback’s passing, the rushing game, penalties, or good field position resulting from a defensive stop.

Two names that stand out are Tony Romo and Kurt Warner, Nos. 14 and 15. Their inability to hold onto the ball (over 11 fumbles for each of them) knock off 1.8 wins from Romo’s total and 1.5 from Warner’s. In fact, if I disregarded rushing stats altogether, Romo and Warner would be Nos. 3 and 4, respectively; their rushing drops them both 11 spots.

The three most underpaid quarterbacks last year were Matt Cassel (paid $5.87 million less than he deserved), Tyler Thigpen ($5.85 million), and Seneca Wallace ($5.39 million).

Ben Roethlisberger (paid a whopping $22.9 million more than he deserved), JaMarcus Russell ($11.3 million), and Brett Favre ($7.09 million) were the three most overpaid quarterbacks in 2008. Roethlisberger was the highest-paid player from any position last year, and JaMarcus Russell just showed how badly the league needs a rookie wage scale.

 
RUNNING BACKS

Third—that’s where LenDale White would have ranked if wins were calculated just as the regression showed.

Sixth—that’s where Tim Hightower would have ranked if wins were calculated just as the regression showed.

You can see where this is heading. Because the regression equation placed so much emphasis on rushing touchdowns, backs that get the load of the red zone carries for their team—such as White, Hightower, and Brandon Jacobs—would place among the league’s best.

Rushing touchdowns are a valuable measure at the team level, but not at the player level, in which the Mike Alstotts of the world can earn nine or ten wins from their touchdown percentage alone. (Alstott’s six touchdowns in 34 attempts in 2005 would have been worth 9.8 wins.)

The solution to this is to find the percentage of his team’s total rushing touchdowns that a running back’s touchdowns make up, and then multiply this figure by the number of wins created by a back’s rushing touchdowns (55.71 x touchdowns ÷ attempts). Add this to the rest of his wins, and subtract 2.15 wins—the average for those with 100 rush attempts—and you have wins above average.

You're currently logged into Facebook

Do you want to share your Bleacher Report activity on Facebook?