NFL Lines Week 12: Analyzing Schedule's Can't-Miss Bets

Mike Moraitis@@michaelmoraitisAnalyst INovember 21, 2013

NEW ORLEANS, LA - SEPTEMBER 08: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons and Drew Brees #9 of the New Orleans Saints speak following a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on September 8, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Saints defeated the Atlanta Falcons 23-17. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Betting on football is a hard thing to do, and it has never been more clear than this season as what seemed like surefire bets have gone by the wayside week after week.

But don't fret, because Week 12 presents some definite winners to place a wager on in what has become a sea of uncertainty.

Let's take a look at some wagers bettors must make in order to have success this week.


Betting lines are courtesy of

NFL Picks Week 12 Against the Spread
SaintsFalconsSaints (-10)
BearsRamsBears (+1)
JetsRavensJets (+4)
CowboysGiantsCowboys (+3)
SteelersBrownsBrowns (-1)
BucsLionsBucs (+10)
VikingsPackersVikings (+5)
ChargersChiefsChiefs (-5)
PanthersDolphinsPanthers (-4.5)
JaguarsTexansTexans (-10)
ColtsCardinalsColts (+1)
BroncosPatriotsBroncos (-3)
49ersRedskins49ers (-6)
DEN-NE via SportsBook (all others via Bovada)


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (Over/Under 53)

The Saints offense has been dominant this season, averaging 28.8 points per game, and they also sport one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, Drew Brees, who leads the No. 2 passing attack in the league.

Not to mention the Saints are historically a better team indoors, and despite the fact that they are away from their home dome for this contest, the Falcons play their games indoors, so that's a huge plus for New Orleans' offense this week.

The Falcons defense has been dreadful with a No. 22 ranking against the pass and a No. 30 ranking against the run, so don't expect them to be too successful in slowing down the Saints' high-powered offense.

Altogether, the Falcons have allowed 29.2 points per contest, good enough for No. 29  overall, and they just allowed 41 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, which is a team that ranks No. 28 in scoring offense.

Even if the Falcons continue to struggle offensively (21.4 points per game), they won't need to do much in order to help top the 53-point over in the game against the Saints, as Atlanta's counterpart will no doubt hold up its end of the bargain and them some.

Suggested Bet: Over 53


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10)

GLENDALE, AZ - NOVEMBER 10: Quarterback Case Keenum #7 of the Houston Texans warms up for the game with the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium on November 10, 2013 in Glendale, Arizona.  (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

Despite their struggles this season, the Texans are primed to crush the Jaguars this week as many teams have done in 2013.

In all but one of their losses this season, the Jags have been defeated by over 10 points, with the exception of their Week 2 game against the Oakland Raiders. That isn't much of a surprise considering the Raiders own the No. 26-ranked scoring offense in football.

On the flip side, the Texans haven't exactly been lighting teams up this season, but eight losses in a row means this team is due, and the Jags are a perfect team to face when needing to snap such a streak. New starting quarterback Case Keenum has been an instant upgrade over former QB Matt Schaub and has enabled the Texans offense to take shots down field in order to make big plays.

Jacksonville owns the No. 24 pass defense and the worst run defense in football, which is something the Texans are salivating over as they own the No. 9 passing offense and the No. 12 ground game.

The only thing the Jags do relatively well is pass the ball, but Houston specializes in stopping opposing air attacks as the premier pass defense in the league. It may be a big spread, but the Texans have all the goods to cover at home while the Jags have all the goods to get blown out.

Suggested Bet: Texans (-10)


New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4)

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 17: Head coach Rex Ryan of the New York Jets and Ed Reed #22 look on from the sideline during NFL game action against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on November 17, 2013 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Tom Szcze
Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

The first sign that this game will be close is the fact that neither team can score a lot of points.

The Jets are ranked No. 31 in points per game (18.3) while the Ravens are slightly better with a No. 25 ranking (20.8). If both teams live up to their billing, this game will end with the score being within four points.

The overwhelming trend for New York is its on-again, off-again play that has led to the Jets winning every other game this season. After the Jets got scorched by the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, head coach Rex Ryan's squad should win this week if the trend holds up.

Baltimore is no stranger to playing tight games that come down to the wire, as the Ravens have either won or lost by fewer than four points in six of 10 games this season. In fact, after the first three games of the season, the Ravens have only won or lost by fewer than four points once in their last seven games.

This will be a matchup of two solid defenses that will cause a ton of problems for their opponent's offense, and that should lead to a close game that is decided by a field goal at most.

Suggested Bet: Jets (+4)


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