Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 20, 2013

TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 19:  Receiver Calvin Johnson #81 of the Detroit Lions runs through the tackle of defensive back E.J. Biggers #31 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on December 19, 2010 in Tampa, Florida.  (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
J. Meric/Getty Images

While the Buccaneers are on a two-game win streak and have won four of their last five games in Motown, they've lost eight of nine to the books when playing Detroit.

Nevertheless, the Bucs are on a 6-0 against-the-spread run as a double-digit pup dating back to 2009.


Point spread: Lions opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 48. (Line updates and matchup report)


Odds Shark computer prediction: 22.9-17.2 Lions


Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Tampa Bay isn't going to the playoffs, but it certainly can make a run at a .500 record and make it hard for other teams to get to the postseason. The Bucs knocked off Miami two weeks ago, then humiliated the Falcons last week. No reason to believe they can't tame the Lions and keep this one close, which is what the computer foresees.

The trend says Tampa covers as double-digit road chalk (6-0 ATS streak, according to Odds Shark’s NFL database).


Why the Lions can cover the spread

Because they're playing a team that took advantage of two teams that are struggling with their own issues. Tampa Bay beat Miami the week all the Richie Incognito controversy began, and it knocked off a struggling Atlanta team that has now been outscored by 74 points during a four-game skid.

They are 8-1 ATS in nine recent games against the Bucs.


Smart Pick

Tampa Bay is your play in this one. And why not? The Buccaneers are playing with a better mindset and will come in feeling much better after their win than the Lions will after letting the Steelers eke out a win in Pittsburgh. Detroit may win this one, but it'll be challenged by a motivated Bucs team.



  • Bucs are 1-8 ATS vs Detroit since 2000
  • Lions 1-4 SU in five home games vs Tampa
  • Bucs are 6-0 ATS as double-digit road underdog since 2009
  • Just second time since 1996 Lions have been double-digit home faves


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