NBA: Western Conference First Round Preview

After such an exciting regular season, the 2007-2008 NBA playoffs should be one of the best ever. The playoffs are always high drama as heroes and villains are forged through their play, but this season features some of the most compelling matchups to date.

No matter what the outcome of any playoff game, the true winners are the fans—who will be rewarded with nothing but fantastic basketball from now until May.

Here’s what to look for in the West:

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver

Since the Nuggets don’t care about strategy or game planning, this series will come down to individual heroics.

While Iverson and Melo should be able to score against the Lakers, Denver has no chance of knocking LA out of the playoffs. Iverson will score and pass but he’ll commit too many reckless turnovers that will turn into Lakers points.

Carmelo’s mind will be clouded by his recent arrest and by Lamar Odom and Kobe Bryant’s defense. He’ll be prone to lapses in judgment all series long.

Kenyon Martin won’t be able to bully around Ronny Turiaf, Marcus Camby will continue to take (and brick) 20-footers, and J.R. Smith is too volatile to be relied upon.

And since the Nuggets don’t even bother playing defense, the Lakers triangle will turn into a three-cornered layup line from the opening tip of the series.

Prediction: The Nuggets might score 100 every game. The Lakers might score 120 every game. Lakers in 5.

New Orleans Hornets vs. Dallas Mavericks:

Most one-man gangs don’t thrive in the postseason and there are ways to stop Chris Paul. You can double him as soon as he crosses the timeline and force his teammates—the majority of whom are dependant on Paul for setting them up—to create plays for themselves. Or, you can give Paul a lane to the basket, keep a body on Tyson Chandler as he rolls to the hoop, and then commit felonies to Paul as he gets close to the basket.

But who does Dallas have that is tough enough to bully Paul under the hoop? Erick Dampier is, but he’s routinely in foul trouble and can’t afford to pick up unnecessary violations. Can Brandon Bass be an enforcer?

Jason Kidd is certainly tough enough, but can Kidd keep up with Paul? If Kidd is able to muscle Paul at both ends of the court than the Mavs gain the edge to the series.

Peja Stojakovic, as Lakers fans will gladly point out, disappears in the postseason, Mo Pete isn’t a creator, and without Chris Paul feeding him alley-oops, Chandler disappears on offense.

Indeed, the Hornets most reliable weapon may be David West in the post. West will dominate Dirk Nowitzki in the pivot and has a deadly 17 footer to complement his post game. But Bass has the defensive length and the strength to match West’s offensive game.

Bonzi Wells is a serious X-Factor in the series. Will he muscle Josh Howard to provide a third scorer or will he check himself out of the series?  Will Jannero Pargo’s streak shooting be on target or off? Can anybody on the Hornets besides West and Wells survive playoff-level physicality?

Being a playoff virgin, these are questions not even New Orleans knows. Plus, Dallas’ defense has intensified considerably down the stretch, no doubt infused by Jason Kidd’s toughness.

With Jason Kidd on board, Dallas offense is far less one-on-one oriented as it has been in the past. Still, Dallas loves the isolation and most of the matchups are in their favor. Kidd won’t blow past Chris Paul but he’ll drive right through him.

Kidd won’t make careless passes or dribbles that Paul will anticipate and steal, and might have some tricky dribbles to offset Paul’s gambling addiction. Plus, Avery Johnson would be wise to run Kidd through screens and put Kidd in the post to drain the energy of Paul.

West and Chandler will lock Dirk down and throw away the key but Dirk will score at will against Peja, as will Josh Howard.

Off the bench, Jerry Stackhouse can run off streak scoring sprees, Devean George will play physical post defense and knock down threes, and Malik Allen will hit a wide open jumper if you give it to him.

Give the Mavs the edge off the bench. Give the Mavs offense the edge vs. the Hornets defense. New Orleans has the edge on offense against Dallas’ defense. Dallas has the edge on toughness and has a huge edge in experience.

The saving grace for New Orleans is that Dallas has a huge disadvantage of players disappearing when the spotlight tunrs on.

Prediction: Paul will have a good series but won’t be the overwhelming playmaker over seven games that the Hornets will need him to be. West will be average, and the Hornets offense will struggle when Paul is taken away. Mavericks in 6.

San Antonio vs. Phoenix

Why should we wait until the Conference Finals to watch these teams play? The basketball gods have given fans everything they’ve wanted all season long, including this juicy first rounder.

The Suns offense has changed for the better. Instead of being completely one-dimensional, the Suns are now capable of scoring on the break, scoring in early offense, dumping the ball into Shaq, having Amare Stoudemire isolate, or having Nash drive and find Grant Hill cutting along the baseline.

In many respects, this may be Phoenix’s most potent offense they’ve had in the Steve Nash era.

The Spurs will get back and take away the break leaving the Suns to do everything in the halfcourt. Tony Parker can’t stop Nash, and with his skills eroding, it’s unlikely Bruce Bowen will either.

With the Spurs unable to cut off the head of the monster, Phoenix should be able to get into any play they call.

Tim Duncan has no chance to stop Stoudemire one-on-one when Amare can turn and face. And neither Duncan nor Fabricio Oberto nor Kurt Thomas has the strength to successfully muscle Shaq away from the basket.

San Antonio will rely on their flawless help defense to contain the Suns offense but it’s hard to fathom Phoenix being held completely in check. Whether or not Shaq can be a difference-maker, and whether or not Duncan can successfully clog the middle on every drive will be the keys to that side of the ball.

Duncan will dominate Stoudemire in the pivot but TD hasn’t been capable of single handedly controlling ball games this season. Plus, Duncan has always had trouble when matched up with Shaq. And Duncan’s jump shot has been questionable this year. If Duncan’s jumper is working then the Suns will have to double team and San Antonio’s merry-go-round of open looks will commence.

If not, the Spurs could struggle to score.

Parker will have no problems sifting through Nash and around Shaq and Amare for his usual array of spectacular layups and floaters. The Spurs will also look to isolate Shaq in pick-and-pops to get him out of the paint or have Kurt Thomas and Tim Duncan wind up with wide open jumpers.

Can the Spurs perimeter players hit their jumpers? Will Stoudemire rotate? Can Manu Ginobli best Raja Bell? These are all major factors that will determine San Antonio’s offensive success.

And don’t count out the ability of Amare Stoudemire to make crucial mistakes on defense and pick up reckless offensive and loose-ball fouls. Amare’s head will likewise be a huge variable in the eventual outcome.

Prediction: Too many mistakes from Stoudemire will doom the Suns. Both point guards will play like stars but Duncan will be more reliable than Shaq in the long haul. Still, Phoenix will consistently score and the Spurs jump shooters will hit dry spells. It will go 7, as it should, and Duncan will be the hero. Spurs in 7.

Utah vs. Houston

Can the Rockets score enough? Utah’s defense will completely key in on Tracy McGrady limiting his ability to take over a game with his playmaking so who else will step up?

Rafer Alston is out for the first two games greatly increasing Utah’s chances of stealing a game on the road. If Utah does, there is no way for the Rockets to win in Utah so Houston must hold serve at home.

Houston will run some high screen/roll stuff designed to get Luis Scola and Carl Landry a head of steam to the basket. Utah’s backline defense isn’t too strong so McGrady should have some success driving and dishing to Scola and Landry for layups.

Other than that, Houston’s offense will rely totally on T-Mac left, T-Mac right, T-Mac near, and T-Mac far. And McGrady’s always been shy of contact so his ability to carry a team isn’t as potent as other true franchise players.

Bobby Jackson has no way to slow down Deron Williams so Houston might be forced to put Shane Battier on him. But Utah will counter by posting up any and every mismatch.

Nobody on the Rockets has the length to match up with Carlos Boozer, Dikembe Mutombo will be sucked out to the perimeter by Mehmet Okur, and Shane Battier’s lock down defense will be wasted since Utah doesn’t penetrate with their wings.

Houston will get a win or two solely because the Jazz commit to many turnovers and don’t play coordinated defense on the road. In every other aspect, the Jazz are a horrible matchup for the Rockets.

Prediction: For football fans out there, Matt Harpring vs. Shane Battier will be like watching a running back and a linebacker attacking each other head on. It may be the most interesting aspect of the entire series. Jazz in 6.