Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 19, 2013

Nine of the Chicago Bears' last 11 road games have played OVER on the totals. Seven of the St. Louis Rams' last nine home games have also gone OVER on the totals. The Bears and Rams hook up on Sunday in St. Louis.

Point spread: The game opened as a pick-em; the total was 46. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.7-22.4 Bears

 

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago is 2-0 with Josh McCown at quarterback, and he'll get another start this week in place of the injured Jay Cutler. In their first season under offensive guru Marc Trestman, the Bears rank ninth in total offense and second in scoring at 28 points per game. Also, Chicago just beat St. Louis one year ago 23-6, holding the Rams to 160 yards of offense.

They are 5-1 against the spread versus the Rams in recent years.

 

Why the Rams can cover the spread

Last time out, St. Louis exploded for a 38-8 victory at Indianapolis. So that's twice this year that the Rams have pulled shockers, including their earlier win against what was then a still-decent Houston team. By the numbers, St. Louis doesn't do much to impress, ranking 27th in offense and 19th in defense, but it is 2-1 ATS with Kellen Clemens at quarterback.

An extra week of rest has been kind to the Rams in recent years, as they are riding a 5-1 ATS run in post-bye weeks, according to the Odds Shark NFL database.

 

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer believes the Bears will win outright a game that just sneaks OVER its total. McCown seems to know what he's doing, and Chicago has some nice weapons at its disposal with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. The St. Louis defense has shown some ability, but it might have its hands full on Sunday. Back the Bears.

 

Trends:

  • Bears are 5-1 ATS past six games vs. Rams
  • Seven of past nine meetings played UNDER the total
  • Nine of past 11 Bears road games played OVER the total
  • Seven of past nine Rams home games played OVER the total         
  • Rams are 5-1 ATS past six seasons after a bye week

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Sharkfollow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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