Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels: Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Missouri Tigers vs. Mississippi Rebels: Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction
Kyle Rivas/Getty Images

Ole Miss is a small home underdog to Missouri Saturday, and this is not a role where the Rebels have excelled over the years.

They have won just three times in 27 tries as home underdogs, and they face a Tigers team that has been hot in conference games, covering the spread in eight of 10 recent matches.

 

Point spread: Missouri opened as three-point road favorites; the total was 57 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 37-27 Missouri

 

Why Missouri can cover the spread

Quarterback James Franklin returned to practice from his shoulder injury and is expected to start in this game. The balance just may be back for the Tigers, who sport a very fierce defense that allows just 20.2 points per game and 3.3 yards per carry.

They have beaten Ole Miss both times they met in recent years and covered the spread as well and have been solid (8-2 ATS) in 10 recent games against SEC foes.

 

Why Mississippi can cover the spread

It's hard not to have respect for Ole Miss thanks to the job coach Hugh Freeze has done. Betting-wise, he's on a 26-9 ATS roll dating back to 2010. The play of red-hot quarterback Bo Wallace was exemplified with the offense's record-shattering, 751-yard performance last week in a 51-21 win over Troy.

 

Smart Pick

Giving the nod to a methodical SEC East-leading Mizzou team that creates opportunity for itself (+14 TO margin). The return of Franklin to full strength is a big deal, as he's been sidelined since Oct. 12. The stop unit is one of the best in the league, leading the league with 17 interceptions and 34 sacks.

 

Trends

  • Missouri won and covered in only two recent clashes vs. Ole Miss.
  • Missouri is 11-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2007.
  • Ole Miss is just 3-24 SU as a home underdog since 2002.
  • Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 conference games.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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