Oregon looks to continue rebounding in a big way from the crippling loss to Stanford, but they give more than 20 points to an Arizona Wildcat team that has been excellent as home underdogs.
The Ducks have dominated Arizona over the years (14-3 since 1995), but beware that money-making Wildcat angle when they catch points at home.
Point spread: Oregon opened as 17.5-point road favorites, but the line jumped quickly about -20; the total was 67 early in the week. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer prediction: 59-39 Oregon
Why Oregon can cover the spread
The Ducks were breathing much easier after Southern Cal knocked off Stanford last Saturday, as the Pac-12 North has once again shifted hands. Oregon controls its own destiny. And while all it needs is a win, a blowout win is what it does best, especially if it has designs on climbing the BCS poll.
The Ducks have won seven of eight visits to Arizona and 14 of 17 overall against the Wildcats since 1995, according to the Odds Shark football database.
Why Arizona can cover the spread
Pride comes to mind first of all, as the Wildcats have played well for most of the season. And the last thing they're going to want is to have the Ducks come into their house and put together a 21-point blowout. Arizona has the athletes to keep up, but it's a matter of matching wits.
The Wildcats have been very tough as home underdogs over the years, churning a 13-3-1 ATS profit for Arizona bettors in this situation.
The total is the smarter play, to be honest. Why mess with a 20-point road favorite in a conference rivalry, or a home underdog that may tucker out? Both teams move the ball at a frenetic pace, and the OVER looks like the best play in this game. These two are going to put on a show and soar past the number.
- Oregon is 14-3 SU vs. Arizona since 1995
- Arizona is 1-7 SU past eight at home to the Ducks
- Last week’s loss at Stanford snapped an 11-0 ATS run for Oregon as road chalk
- Arizona is 13-3-1 ATS in 17 as home underdogs since 2004
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