Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 19, 2013

COLLEGE STATION, TX - OCTOBER 20:  Johnny Manziel #2 of the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field on October 20, 2012 in College Station, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

To say the LSU Tigers always win as home favorites would be exaggerating slightly, but they have won 29 straight when laying points, as they will be Saturday against Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies.

However, many bettors were watching the total at 71 points early in the week as two high-powered offenses prepared to light up the scoreboard.

 

Point spread: LSU opened as four-point favorites; the total was 71 early in the week (line updates and matchup report).

 

Odds Shark computer prediction: 45-39, Texas A&M

 

Why Texas A&M can cover the spread

Johnny Manziel gives us good reason to play the Aggies this week, given the opponent. The Tigers generally have one of the tougher defenses in the nation, and even in years they do not, there's always significance for offensive units to excel against LSU. Manziel will be pumped.

 

Why LSU can cover the spread

It appears quarterback Zach Mettenberger will start this game, despite an ankle injury he suffered in a loss to Alabama a couple weeks back. He's had a week to rest during the bye. That helps against a Texas A&M stop unit that ranks at or near the bottom of the SEC in every major defensive category.

The Tigers almost never lose when favored at home, winning 29 straight in this situation since 2008.

 

Smart Pick

With both offenses being the storyline in this game, the OVER looks like the best bet in this game. With Manziel targeting Mike Evans and Mettenberger looking for Odell Beckham, this should be an awfully entertaining football game that will light up the scoreboard.

Play this one high, even with a lofty total at 71. For underdog fans, the Odds Shark computer has picked Texas A&M to end a two-game losing skid against the Tigers.

 

Trends:

  • LSU won and covered the past two seasons vs. Texas A&M.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of LSU's last 10 games.
  • LSU has won 29 straight straight up as home favorites.

 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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