Projecting the 2014 WAR for Top 5 MLB Free Agents

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Projecting the 2014 WAR for Top 5 MLB Free Agents
Scott Halleran/Getty Images
A team is going to have to break the bank for Robinson Cano.

The biggest free-agent signing to date has been Marlon Byrd, who inked a two-year, $16 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. Considering it’s only the third week of October, however, there’s still plenty of time for teams to begin making legitimate offers to the top free agents.

The unequivocal featured target this offseason will be Robinson Cano. Cano, who has manned second base for the New York Yankees since 2005, is in line to net a historic contract.

But with a projectable 2014 bWAR of 7.43, perhaps Cano would actually be worth his rumored 10-year, $300 million contract.

The same can’t necessarily be said about Jacoby Ellsbury, who unlike Cano, has endured a career filled with injuries and inconsistency. With a wide range of bWARs over the past three seasons, a prospective team will have to roll the dice with projecting Ellsbury’s production in 2014 (and beyond).

Read on to see the rest of the top MLB free agents and their projected 2014 WARs.

 

Note: The projected 2014 WARs are based on the "5/3/2" projected-WAR formula. It weighs a player's 2013 WAR at 0.5, his 2012 WAR at 0.3 and his 2011 WAR at 0.2. The sum creates a projection of a player's 2014 WAR.

In addition, the projection of WAR beyond 2014 is based on a formula created by Tom Tango and Jeff Zimmerman. The formula assumes players lose 0.5 WAR from ages 28-32 and 0.7 WAR after age 32. The above formula also assumes that there will be a 5 percent inflation for the price per 1.0 WAR from year-to-year.

 

All WAR statistics sourced from Baseball-Reference.com. All UZR/150 statistics sourced from FanGraphs.com.

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