NFL Picks Week 11: Predicting Winners for Sunday's Toughest Games

Rob Goldberg@TheRobGoldbergFeatured ColumnistNovember 17, 2013

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Geno Smith #7 of the New York Jets looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills during the fourthd quarter in a game at MetLife Stadium on September 22, 2013 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets defeated the Bills 27-20. (Photo by Rich Schultz /Getty Images)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images

Week 11 of the NFL season features some matchups that are going to be incredibly close, which makes it tough to pick a winner. Fortunately, every game features some insight into how it will turn out.

All football fans should be able to appreciate the quality of football that will be on display on Sunday and Monday. We could legitimately be seeing a preview to the conference championships when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos, while the New Orleans Saints host the San Francisco 49ers.

It is even possible that the Monday night battle between the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots could be a sneak peek at the Super Bowl matchup.

Still, those trying to pick every game of the week will have just as much trouble with some of the other games on Sunday. Here are full predictions for Week 11, along with a look at the closest games according to the spreads on Vegas Insider.

NFL Week 11 Picks
New York JetsBuffalo BillsJets
Baltimore RavensChicago BearsBears
Cleveland BrownsCincinnati BengalsBengals
Washington RedskinsPhiladelphia EaglesEagles
Detroit LionsPittsburgh SteelersLions
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers
Arizona CardinalsJacksonville JaguarsCardinals
Oakland RaidersHouston TexansTexans
San Diego ChargersMiami DolphinsChargers
San Francisco 49ersNew Orleans SaintsSaints
Green Bay PackersNew York GiantsGiants
Minnesota VikingsSeattle SeahawksSeahawks
Kansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosBroncos
New England PatriotsCarolina PanthersPanthers

Atlanta Falcons (+1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was the toughest game for experts to call, according to NFL Pickwatch. While 51 percent of analysts chose the Buccaneers, there is far from any confidence in this matchup. The teams combine for three wins on the year, and Atlanta has gotten blown out the last two weeks by a combined 47 points. 

However, the Buccaneers have a few advantages the Falcons do not have.

First, they have the momentum of actually winning a game, earning their first win of the year against the Miami Dolphins.

Additionally, Tampa Bay has the ability to actually play defense. Although the unit has been inconsistent this year, the run defense remains solid, while the use of Darrelle Revis in man coverage greatly helps the pass defense.

On the other hand, Atlanta has not been able to stop anyone while allowing the fourth-most points per game in football. Buccaneers quarterback Mike Glennon has been playing well lately, and he should be able to score enough points to win his second game in the NFL.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20

New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

There is certainly concern when it comes to the Jets playing on the road. The team is only 1-3 away from home this season, with the only win coming against the struggling Falcons.

However, the Bills simply do not match up well in this contest.

For Buffalo to be successful, it needs to establish the run with either Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller or both. EJ Manuel struggled last week after returning to the lineup, and he cannot win the game by himself against a stingy Jets defense.

Unfortunately, he might have to considering the Jets have the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL, allowing only 73.8 yards per game. This will shut down the opposing offense, and Geno Smith will simply have to play relatively mistake-free football in order to help his team.

Although the pressure from the Bills' defensive line might get to the rookie quarterback, the Jets should escape with a low-scoring victory. 

Prediction: Jets 17, Bills 9

San Diego Chargers (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 03:  Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers throws a pass while warming up before the start of the Chargers game against the Washington Redskins  at FedExField on November 3, 2013 in Landover, Maryland.  (Photo by
Rob Carr/Getty Images

Coming into the game, Ryan Tannehill has been the most-sacked quarterback in football. Unfortunately, things are only going to get worse.

According to ESPN, center Mike Pouncey will miss the upcoming game due to an illness. This leaves the Dolphins with only two of their starters on the offensive line against San Diego.

Miami will not be able to take advantage of the Chargers' weakness in the secondary because Tannehill will be unable to throw down the field.

San Diego will have no such problems, especially with Philip Rivers playing as efficiently as any point in his career. The offense has utilized a great deal of balance with Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead taking care of the rushing attack and Rivers completing passes all over the field.

This will help the Chargers earn a quality road win and get back into the playoff race in the AFC. 

Prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 17

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