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Week 11 NFL Picks: Favorites Destined to Fall Amid Tough Matchups

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Week 11 NFL Picks: Favorites Destined to Fall Amid Tough Matchups
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

With a vast majority of the league stuck in mediocrity through the first half of the season, Week 11 will shake up the playoff picture considerably across the board.

Plenty of teams who are looking to move on from average starts battle in Week 11, leaving playoff implications across the board as teams jockey for position.

The favorites have emerged from the pack with Sunday looming, but not all of them are safe.

Here is a look at the teams that are sure to fall despite entering the weekend as a favorite.

NFL Week 11 Picks
Away Team Home Team Pick
Indianapolis Colts Tennessee Titans -
Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers Falcons
New York Jets Buffalo Bills Jets
Detroit Lions Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers
Washington Redskins Philadelphia Eagles Redskins
Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Bears
Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Bengals
Oakland Raiders Houston Texans Texans
Arizona Cardinals Jacksonville Jaguars Cardinals
San Diego Chargers Miami Dolphins Chargers
Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers New Orleans Saints Saints
Green Bay Packers New York Giants Giants
Kansas City Chiefs Denver Broncos Broncos
New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Patriots

Steven Cook's predictions

 

Upsets of the Week

Washington Redskins over Philadelphia Eagles

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles—somehow—enter Week 11 tied for the NFC East lead, playing inspired football behind streaky quarterback Nick Foles. But despite two straight wins, Philly's defensive issues are still poignant.

Their 3,065 yards given up through the air this season—more than 300 per game—are the second most in the league.

Even in lofty wins against Oakland and Green Bay in the last two weeks, the defense gave up more than 280 yards through the air to both Terrelle Pryor and Scott Tolzien—not exactly top competition.

More than halfway through a sophomore slump he'd like to forget, Robert Griffin III has actually improved in recent weeks. He's coming off just his second game of the season without a pick and threw three touchdowns along with 325 total yards despite the loss to Minnesota. Griffin has improved his completion percentage as well, going over 68 percent in his last two weeks.

Foles has been a godsend in his last two games. But the only other time he combined for five TDs and no picks in two straight games this season resulted in an 11-for-29, 80-yard day against Dallas (a noticeably bad secondary) right after. 

Plus, the Eagles simply can't win at home. They're winless there in four tries and won't turn that around against RG3, who is licking his chops at the hapless Philly secondary. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers over Detroit Lions

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sport

Oh, how quickly things can change in the NFL. Weeks after Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger proclaimed his team as the worst in the league, Pittsburgh has suddenly won three of five. 

They face a tough test in Week 11, when the Detroit Lions come to town. But despite the Lions holding a firm grip over the NFC South at 6-3, Pittsburgh actually matches up well.

Detroit is noticeably reliant on its aerial attack with Matthew Stafford, but he and Calvin Johnson will go up against the NFL's fourth-best pass defense. The Steelers let up just over 200 yards per game. 

Where Pittsburgh has been gashed is in the running game, where Detroit ranks just 21st in the league with 103.3 yards per game. 

Roethlisberger's passing attack doesn't jump off the page, but he notched four touchdowns and 400 yards against New England—one of the league's best secondaries. The Lions aren't quite that talented at the position, giving up the sixth most passing yards. 

Ever since their four-game losing streak to start the season, the Steelers have won each of their two home appearances. They'll make it a third by upsetting Detroit and suddenly emerging as one of the NFL's hottest teams. 

 

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference

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