NFL Spreads Week 11: Most Appealing Plays This Weekend

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NFL Spreads Week 11: Most Appealing Plays This Weekend
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For whatever reason, this week's lines seem particularly hard to call. Vegas is certainly in midseason form and very few of the lines really jump off the page and scream, "Bet me, please!"

As always, though, a few do. Those are the ones we'll talk about here. 

Maybe a team is getting just a little too much love from the oddsmakers. Maybe a few home teams are being given a bit more credit than they deserve. Whatever the case may be, the following three games are excellent ones to focus on when deciding which matchups to exploit.

 

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread
Matchup Prediction
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans Colts
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bucs
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1) Jets
Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers Lions
Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) Eagles
San Diego Chargers (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3) Ravens
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6) Browns
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-7) Raiders
Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars Cardinals
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-8.5) Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-13) Vikings
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3) Saints
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-5) Packers
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-2.5) Patriots

All lines via Vegas Insider

 

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans

Divisional games are always tough to predict, and Thursday Night Football throws a few wrenches into the mix too, but I really like this line for the Coltseven on the road. 

The Titans are just 2-3 at home, the Colts are coming off easily their worst and most embarrassing loss of the season and, oh yeah, Ryan Fitzpatrick is now Tennessee's starting quarterback.

I mean, if the Titans can't beat the Jacksonville Jaguars at home, are we supposed to believe they can beat a motivated Colts team?

I know, I know, any given Sunday—er, Thursday—but this is a game the Colts should win by more than a field goal. The Colts are 3-1 on the road, won both meetings last year and responded to their previous losses by beating the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos in the following week.  

In other words, the Colts respond to losses in style.

Pick: Colts

 

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-13)

I know the Vikings stink. I know the Seahawks have won 12 games in a row at homeand make no mistake, it will be 13 in a row after this contest—but I think you have to take the points with the Vikings in this game.

For one thing, the Seahawks have won just three games by 13 or more points this season. For another, they've been vulnerable against the run, allowing 111 rushing yards per game15th in the NFL. In other words, they should have plenty of problems dealing with Adrian Peterson, who will single-handedly keep the Vikings in this game.

And don't expect the probable return of Percy Harvin to spark too crazy an offensive outburst, as I expect he'll be somewhat limited. 

The Seahawks are an extremely safe pick straight-up, but laying 13 points?

No thanks. 

Pick: Vikings

 

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sure, the Lions are the road team here, but I love this line for them. The Steelers aren't particularly good at home (2-2) and the Lions are pretty good on the road (3-2), so I don't think the home-field advantage will be a major factor. 

This matchup just isn't favorable for Pittsburgh.

The team is fifth in pass defense this year and has a pretty good cover corner in Ike Taylor, but Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are each having huge seasons and the Steelers allowed Tom Brady to throw for 432 yards and four touchdowns against them two weeks ago. 

The Lions aren't a great running team (103.3 yards per game, 21st in the league), but the dynamic Reggie Bush should have a field day against the Steelers' 29th-ranked run defense. 

This game looks likely to become a shootout, and I'll side with Stafford, Megatron and Bush being at least three points better than Pittsburgh in that scenario. 

Pick: Lions

 

Lines courtesy of Vegas Insider.

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, tweet random fantasy musings and wonder how the New Orleans Saints could earn almost as many first downs (40) on Sunday night as the Dallas Cowboys ran plays (43).

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