It's official, per Jake Peavy's approval, the White Sox will have acquired the 27 year-old right hander.  The deal, so far, includes Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and two lower level prospects.  Lower level means that they're in A-ball, not that they aren't that good.

This is bittersweet to me, as this trade would mean that Jake Peavy would go to a city rival.  It's better than a division rival, especially short-term.

I think Kenny Williams is one of the best GM's in baseball.  He's done a lot of great things for the White Sox.  The worst trade he made—Carlos Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino—can even be spun in a good way.  But what he's trying to do here is go after a big name and hope he hits a home run with Jake Peavy. 

Peavy has the name that the fans will notice.  Peavy has the accolades as the 2007 Cy-Young winner.  I'm going to do nothing but sit here and criticize this trade from the White Sox perspective.

This is a move by KW and Ozzie Guillen to say, "WE NEED STARTING PITCHING...NOW!"  That's the problem, the Sox, even with Peavy, aren't favored to win the division or make the playoffs. 

The Sox are, well, an 80 win team.  If you trade your controllable pitching for a $16 million pitcher, you're destined for failure.  This team is "built to win now" but isn't going to win now.  Why not keep the studs you have?

There are plenty of reasons why I don't like Jake Peavy.  I've been doing "research" on him for months, wondering if he was going to come to the other side of town.

1. He has a 3.73 K/BB ratio at Petco, while only surrendering a home run per 56 plate appearances.  On the road, those numbers shift dramatically to 2.53 K/BB and a home run per 30.6 plate appearances.
2. His ERA at Petco is 2.81 but on the road it's 3.82
3. OPS is .120 higher on the road
4. WHIP is .21 higher on the road.

I would argue that he is definitely not the ace that everyone thinks he is.  Yet, he will continue to be paid as such, all the way until 2012 and maybe 2013. 

Over the next three-and-a-half years, he’s owed about $57 million, and that jumps to $75 million over four-and-a-half years if the White Sox are required to pick up his 2013 option in order to get him to agree to the deal. 

It’s a huge monetary commitment, and while the White Sox certainly have money, that kind of required cost is a drag on Peavy’s value.

Now factor in what the Sox have to give up, and it's not looking like a good deal, at all.

Aaron Poreda has the ability to be an absolute stud. In his last AAA outing, the 22 year-old struck out 12 in seven innings. The lefty has the ability to be a top of the rotation pitcher for a long time, and again, is cost controlled. 

He has to develop an out-pitch before he can be brought up to the majors, but he's worked on it, and has shown incredible improvement.

Clayton Richard, by no means, is a stud.  But he's controllable for the next 4-5 years, at a very cheap price.  Straight up, you're probably getting more value, long-term, than you are with Peavy.  I mean, the cost gap between the two is nowhere near the talent gap. 

Richard doesn't have as high of a ceiling as Poreda, but can probably top out as a fourth or fifth starter.  175 4.50 ERA innings at $350K?  That's all that the Sox would need.  Or would you rather have Jake Peavy with a 4.20 ERA in 190 innings getting paid $16M?  You be the judge of that.

The other two prospects matter, although I don't think it's going to be Gordon Beckham, Jordan Danks or even Tyler Flowers. If any of those three go with to San Diego, Kevin Towers will be doing somersaults. It's a great move by Towers.

I've been wrong in the past, but I really feel that this deal is a no-win for the White Sox.  I don't get why teams pay stud pitchers long term deals at ridiculous dollar amounts.  Look at what the Red Sox are doing, signing guys (Penny, Smoltz) on the cheap, while re-stocking the farm system (Bowden, Buchholz, Bard, Masterson).

Anyways, even if he did end up going to a division rival, I think I'd be okay with it.

In the end, I don't think Peavy will say yes to this deal.  If deals are coming in from the Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals (three NL teams) and teams that are in a better position to win than the Sox, then why would Peavy do this deal?

He already has expressed his concern for pitching for Ozzie Guillen, too.  If I were a Sox fan, and Peavy nixes this deal, I'd breathe a sigh of relief.