As we approach June, teams all around baseball begin to get just a little nervous about where they sit in the standings.  Rumors begin, and fans begin to comment on those rumors.  Obviously, there is nothing wrong with that. 

I am one that particularly pays attention to what happens to every major league team around the deadline.  After keeping up with trading deadline rumors and hot stove rumors in the winter, I've noticed one thing:  Fans perception of their prospects and young players is mind boggling.

Since I follow the Cubs a lot, I'll take you through two failed trades, one for Brian Roberts and the other for Jake Peavy.  I was not a fan of either, but these are common things fans said would be suitable for those players.

For Roberts and Bedard—Cedeno, Pie, Marshall, Gallagher.

Let's just look at this two years later.  Obviously, it would have been a horrible trade, especially when you look at where Cedeno's and Pie's career's are at.  Marshall and Gallagher would be a good move, but not for those two players. 

Even at the time, we knew that Pie's career path went down Corey Patterson's lane and Cedeno really had nothing.

One year later, Jake Peavy's name was thrown out there.  People thought DeRosa, Cedeno, Pie, and Marshall would be enough to get him.  Completely wrong.  That deal was no where close to being discussed.  Vitters and/or another prospect (Jay Jackson, Jeff Samardzija) would have also needed to be included. 

Point is, fans for the most part, have no idea how good their young players are.  I mentioned Peavy in a post below, and why I don't think he's worth your minor league rotation.  Fans also don't get that when speculating about a deal, you cannot just include random top prospects in your organization. 

Matt Cain rumors have begun.  Matt Cain is a good, young, controllable pitcher.  He's had great success as a major league pitcher (please, don't look at his win/loss numbers) and is getting a lot of good luck this year.  Most fans will look at his numbers and say, "Yes, trade the farm to get him!" but in reality, he's not pitching THAT well.

Cain is 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA through 8 starts.  People will eat that up.  People will eat up the fact that he's only 24.  But, what they don't know is that his FIP is at an all-time high.  He's allowed more home runs per nine this year than in any previous year. 

He's struck out fewer batters per nine innings than ever before.  He's walked just about the same.  His BABIP is way low at .276, and is stranding 89 percent of base runners.  Now, I'm not saying that Matt Cain is dog crap here, but I'm saying that he's gotten a lot of luck, luck that he DEFINITELY didn't have last year. 

Those are not the only causes for concern.  Fangraphs tells me that Cain's slider has just stopped moving, his velocity is down about 2 MPH on the fastball, and that right-handers are hitting him way harder than before. 

These numbers just aren't sustainable, and ZIPS is projecting a 3.82 ERA the rest of the way, and I fully agree with that.  If you were to tell fans that, they wouldn't be so hot over him joining a rotation, if it meant trading the farm.  Ironically, that's the same ERA that Jake Peavy has away from Petco. 

Although it seems as if I'm being awfully tough on Cain, he's learned how to pitch effectively in the bigs as a 24 year-old.  There's something to be said about that.  I think he can be a very good No. 2 starter in the NL, but he just isn't the clear-cut ace that everyone hopes he'll be. 

So go ahead, Brewers fans, trade Hardy, Villanueva, Gamel and Jeffress to get Cain.  Do you know that these players are a good fit for the club?  In this case, yes, these pieces could help the Giants.  But don't say that I told you so when you get a pitcher that's very similar to Floyd Youmans.  Where the hell did Villanueva get value, anyway?

Finally, hat tip to the Giants for attempting to move him when his value is highest.  Maybe other teams won't see that he's only around 90-91 instead of 93-94 and has stopped throwing his slider.  If you, as a GM, can get a team to sell the farm/other young players with similar service time, good for you.