San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.comFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2013

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 25:  Quarterback Colin Kaepernick #7 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints at The Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 25, 2012 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints are a sparkling 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games, and in a rematch of a fantastic playoff game from a couple of seasons ago, the Saints host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

Point spread:
The Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction:
31.3-28.2 Saints

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco just got held to three field goals by Carolina but scored at least 31 points in each of its previous five games. The 49ers still rank fourth in the league in rushing, averaging 148 ground yards per game, while defensively they rank sixth overall and 12th against the run, holding foes to 105 yards per game on the ground.

In the NFL, teams that out-rush their opponents cover the spread about 65 percent of the time.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

New Orleans ranks second in total offense, second in scoring (29 points per game) and seventh in total defense. The Saints just racked up 242 yards on the ground against Dallas.

If New Orleans is going to get that kind of balance on offense, it's going to be really tough to stop. Also, the Saints are 5-0 SU at the Superdome this year, with an average margin of victory of 20 points.

The Saints have covered the spread in 20 of their last 24 homes games.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is predicting a New Orleans victory and cover, and for the game to play over on the total, but San Francisco has beaten the Saints twice in a row—first in that epic playoff game two seasons ago, then again 31-21 at the Dome last year. In a “bounce-back” play, take the 49ers and the points.


  • The total has gone over in six of San Francisco's last seven road games.
  • San Francisco is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games against New Orleans.
  • Saints are 21-5 ATS past 26 home games.
  • Saints are 20-4 ATS past 24 games as home chalk.

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