San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistNovember 13, 2013

The San Diego Chargers arrive in South Beach mired in a 2-7 ATS slide when visiting AFC East teams, so they'll be looking to turn around that trend on Sunday when they face the Miami Dolphins.

The point spread has flipped already this week and there are competing trends that equally favor the OVER and UNDER.


Point spread:
Dolphins opened as 1.5-point favorites but early betting swung the number in favor of the Chargers; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and matchup report)


Odds Shark computer says:
22.1-19.6 Chargers


Why the Chargers can cover the spread

Execution. The Chargers' offense did manage to get some traction against the Denver Broncos early in their game last week, but they had to settle for just field goals in the first half. They should have an easier time converting against an inferior opponent in the Dolphins this week.


Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Despite the off-field distractions, the Dolphins were leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the fourth quarter on Monday night, and their defense improved as the game went along. Now Miami gets a chance to avenge that loss to Tampa Bay by upsetting San Diego.


Smart Pick

San Diego is the play here, as it is making yet another trip to the east coast, and what used to be a normal go-against has become a team that is playing pretty darned well across the Mississippi. The Chargers' defense is taking a step down in class after Denver and will get to the Fins. Interestingly, all 10 meetings between these teams have played UNDER the total since 1995.


Trends:

  • All 10 meetings since 1995 have played UNDER the total
  • Chargers OVER is 11-2-1 past 14 games as road dogs


Note:
All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.

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