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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction
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The Denver Broncos are 11-1 SU in their last 12 AFC West games, while the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 divisional games. However, most of those losses happened before coach Andy Reid showed up.

At 9-0, first-place KC visits 8-1 Denver for a showdown on Sunday night.


Point spread:
 The Broncos opened as eight-point favorites, but were favored by 9.5 points as of Wednesday. The total was 49.5.

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 37.7-34.7 Broncos

 

Why the Chiefs Can Cover the Spread

While Kansas City still only ranks 24th in the league in total offense, it is 12th in rushing offenseaveraging 119 yards per game on the ground—and 10th in total defense. Also, Team Rankings indicates that the team is fifth in time of possession.

In the NFL, teams that win the TOP battle cover the spread nearly 70 percent of the time. Also, the Chiefs are 4-0 both SU and ATS on the road this season, and they had last week off.


Why the Broncos Can Cover the Spread

Denver still leads the league in offense, averaging 459 yards and 41 points per game. And while the Broncos defense only ranks 23rd overall, some of that has to do with playing with big leads for a good part of this season.

Denver got a bit of a scare late in its victory over San Diego on Sunday when quarterback Peyton Manning suffered an ankle injury, but Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com reports he'll be good to go against Kansas City.


Smart Pick

The Odds Shark computer is calling for a Denver victory, but a Kansas City cover, in a game that will play OVER its total. The Chiefs haven't faced a very difficult schedule so far this year, but they’ve taken care of business at every stop.

Though the Broncos blew out their first four opponents, their last five games have been closer, indicating that the rest of the NFL is catching up. Take the points with KC.


Trends

  • The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS on the road in 2013.
  • OVER is 9-0-1 in the past 10 Denver home games.
  • The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their past 10 divisional games.
  • The Broncos are 11-1 SU in their past 12 divisional games.

 

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow the site on Twitter for injury and line movement updates.

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