Alabama have been money-making machines as big road favorites after churning up a 12-2 ATS record in this situation since 2005. And host Mississippi State has not won outright as double-digit home underdogs since 2004.
Maybe that 25-point road spread isn’t so crazy after all.
Point spread: Alabama opened as 25-point road favorites; the total was 53 Wednesday. (Line updates and matchup report)
Odds Shark computer says: 53-17 Alabama
Why Alabama can cover the spread
The Crimson Tide rank 12th in the nation in points per game, while they're scoring touchdowns on 49 percent of they're offensive drives so far this season.
All that being said, Alabama's offense isn’t even its strongest unit. A balanced effort covers this number.
They are 12-2 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2005 and 11-4 ATS overall in 15 recent road games.
Why Mississippi State can cover the spread
As good as Alabama is on offense, make note that it still ranks behind Mississippi State in total offense. Thus, the Bulldogs might be able to hang tough in any sort of shootout with the Tide to stay within the rather big number.
Alabama might be laying a big number in some people's eyes, but knowing Mississippi State's defense was just exposed by the Red Raiders for 51 points behind 446 passing yards lends some credence to why bettors feel the Tide might be the smart play.
The computer also predicts a Bama win and cover.
- Alabama is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
- Miss State lost 12 straight as double-digit home dog since 2004
- Alabama is 12-2 ATS as double-digit road fave since 2005