Fantasy Football Week 11: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

Timothy RappFeatured ColumnistNovember 14, 2013

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 27: Calvin Johnson #81 of the Detroit Lions warms up prior to the start of the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Ford Field on October 27, 2013 in Detroit, Michigan.  (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)
Leon Halip/Getty Images

For some leagues, the trade deadline is either this week or will arrive soon. It's time to start doing that research, folks, as any moves now could be the difference between a playoff team and another bitter end to your fantasy season. 

How much value does your star running back actually hold? What kind of deals could you make for that injured tight end that keeps playing but you are worried about? What can that up-and-coming quarterback get you in a trade?

Look no further than my weekly trade value chart for those answers.

 

Notes: The top 100 players were determined by using the current ESPN standard-scoring league rankings, calculating each player's "value over replacement player" (VORP for short) and by projecting a player's value for the rest of the season.

VORP was calculated by determining how many additional (or fewer) points per week a player scores compared to the best bench player at his position in 10-team leagues (No. 11 quarterback and tight end; No. 26 running back and wide receiver, taking the flex into account). Games missed due to injury or suspension count against a player's VORP.

Any player not listed has a trade value of one. Remember, this is only a guide—your team needs and areas of strength should always determine any potential trades.

 

Quarterbacks

Week 11 Trade Value for Quarterbacks
RankPosition RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
11Peyton ManningDenver Broncos10.930
52Drew BreesNew Orleans Saints7.728
233Matt StaffordDetroit Lions4.023
304Cam NewtonCarolina Panthers1.221
375Andrew LuckIndianapolis Colts2.118
386Tony RomoDallas Cowboys1.518
397Philip RiversSan Diego Chargers2.218
528Russell WilsonSeattle Seahawks0.714
539Robert Griffin IIIWashington014
5410Tom BradyNew England Patriots-2.110
5511Nick FolesPhiladelphia Eagles-3.910
7912Andy DaltonCincinnati Bengals-0.26
8113Matt RyanAtlanta Falcons05
8214Colin KaepernickSan Francisco 49ers-2.25
9515Aaron RodgersGreen Bay Packers0.22
9916Alex SmithKansas City Chiefs-1.92

 

Quarterback Notes

The top seven quarterbacks in the rankings are essentially locked at this point, and it's hard to see any of those players losing much value except for one—Philip Rivers.

After scoring 22 or more fantasy points in three of the first four weeks this season, Rivers hasn't scored more than 18 points since and has reached the 18-point mark just twice. Since Week 5, he has 73 fantasy points, hardly shabby but less than the 90 Andrew Luck has posted and the 108 from Romo (albeit in one extra game).

So let's say you picked up a player like Nick Foles on waivers—who has seen his trade value take a major bump in recent weeks given the 10 touchdowns he's thrown in his past two games, and the fact that he's 17th in fantasy points among quarterbacks despite starting just four games—and want to move Rivers for help at other positions. 

What types of deals could you expect to make?

  • Danny Woodhead and Cecil Shorts
  • C.J. Spiller and Martellus Bennett
  • Andre Ellington and Keenan Allen
  • Larry Fitzgerald and Chris Ivory
  • Jason Witten and Harry Douglas

Hey, look who cracks the trade value chart this week—it's Case Keenum! With 60 fantasy points in his three starts, he's earned a place in the top 100. 

And no, I still don't know exactly where Tom Brady belongs. I believe he'll be better than he has been thus far, but I also don't trust him this week against the Carolina Panthers, so I still don't think his trade value is that high. Either buy him low or hold onto him, but if you are actively shopping him, you won't get much in return. 

 

Running Backs

Week 11 Trade Value for Running Backs
RankPosition RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
21Jamaal CharlesKansas City Chiefs8.729
32Adrian PetersonMinnesota Vikings8.429
43Matt ForteChicago Bears7.629
84Marshawn LynchSeattle Seahawks6.827
95LeSean McCoyPhiladelphia Eagles6.227
106Knowshon MorenoDenver Broncos6.827
147Frank GoreSan Francisco 49ers5.325
158Reggie BushDetroit Lions4.825
169Alfred MorrisWashington4.425
1710Eddie LacyGreen Bay Packers2.825
2511Chris JohnsonTennessee Titans3.122
2612Stevan RidleyNew England Patriots1.622
2713DeMarco MurrayDallas Cowboys1.322
3114Zac StacySt. Louis Rams0.720
3315Giovani BernardCincinnati Bengals2.420
3416Le'Veon BellPittsburgh Steelers0.220
4817Fred JacksonBuffalo Bills3.215
4918Andre BrownNew York Giants-5.715
5019Danny WoodheadSan Diego Chargers1.215
5120Ben TateHouston Texans-2.515
6521C.J. SpillerBuffalo Bills-1.910
6822Ray RiceBaltimore Ravens-1.910
6923Pierre ThomasNew Orleans Saints1.29
7024Darren SprolesNew Orleans Saints0.29
7125DeAngelo WilliamsCarolina Panthers0.69
7226Ryan MathewsSan Diego Chargers0.49
7627Andre EllingtonArizona Cardinals0.36
7728Maurice Jones-DrewJacksonville Jaguars06
7829Chris IvoryNew York Jets-3.36
9130Rashad JenningsOakland Raiders-1.83
9231Donald BrownIndianapolis Colts-2.63
9732Lamar MillerMiami Dolphins-1.52
9833Darren McFaddenOakland Raiders-0.62
10034Trent RichardsonIndianapolis Colts-1.62

 

Running Back Notes

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 7: Adrian Peterson #28 of the Minnesota Vikings waits before taking the field against the Washington Redskins on November 7, 2013 at Mall of America Field at the Hubert Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Ada
Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

As you can see, there is a definitive group at RB1 in 10-team leagues. Those players are extremely valuable. Then, in the RB2 group there are about six players who I think have a lot of value and have been consistent performers for owners. 

After that, well, good luck.

Fred Jackson's value is hurt by C.J. Spiller getting touches. Spiller's value is hurt by his injury issues. Andre Brown has great upside but has been plagued by fumble and injury issues in the past. Danny Woodhead has limited value in a timeshare with Ryan Mathews. Ben Tate is the lead dog now but has four broken ribs.

Deep breath.

Ray Rice is obviously battling through injuries. It's always tough to trust New Orleans and Carolina running backs. Andre Ellington keeps inexplicably losing snaps to the plodding Rashard Mendenhall. Maurice Jones-Drew has just kind of stunk this year. Players like Rashad Jennings, Chris Ivory and Donald Brown have value but aren't definitively the lead backs just yet. 

It's why so many top-end running backs have very high value, and it's why you really shouldn't trade one unless you have three or four top-15 options and are absolutely desperate for help at other positions. 

This has been your weekly update on the sad state of the running back position in fantasy football. Thanks for reading!

 

Wide Receivers

Week 11 Trade Value for Wide Receivers
RankPosition RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
61Calvin JohnsonDetroit Lions7.628
112Demaryius ThomasDenver Broncos6.626
123Brandon MarshallChicago Bears6.126
134A.J. GreenCincinnati Bengals5.726
185DeSean JacksonPhiladelphia Eagles5.324
196Andre JohnsonHouston Texans4.424
207Dez BryantDallas Cowboys4.124
218Wes WelkerDenver Broncos4.024
229Josh GordonCleveland Browns1.324
2910Jordy NelsonGreen Bay Packers5.221
3211T.Y. HiltonIndianapolis Colts2.720
4012Alshon JefferyChicago Bears3.117
4113Antonio BrownPittsburgh Steelers3.017
4214Pierre GarconWashington2.717
4315Victor CruzNew York Giants2.317
4416Vincent JacksonTampa Bay Buccaneers1.717
4517Eric DeckerDenver Broncos1.717
4618Riley CooperPhiladelphia Eagles1.717
4719Torrey SmithBaltimore Ravens1.617
5820Larry FitzgeraldArizona Cardinals0.412
5921Denarius MooreOakland Raiders0.912
6022Keenan AllenSan Diego Chargers0.912
6123Marques ColstonNew Orleans Saints-1.711
6224Danny AmendolaNew England Patriots-3.911
6325Terrance WilliamsDallas Cowboys011
6426Jarrett BoykinGreen Bay Packers-3.411
8027Harry DouglasAtlanta Falcons-1.15
8428Percy HarvinSeattle Seahawks-7.74
8529Marvin JonesCincinnati Bengals0.84
8630Golden TateSeattle Seahawks0.14
8731James JonesGreen Bay Packers-2.44
8932Aaron DobsonNew England Patriots-0.23
9033Anquan BoldinSan Francisco 49ers-0.43
9134Cecil ShortsJacksonville Jaguars-0.43

 

Wide Receiver Notes

Of non-quarterbacks, only Jamaal Charles (16.3) and Adrian Peterson (16.0) are averaging more fantasy points per week than Calvin Johnson's 15.3. Megatron has scored an astronomical 83 fantasy points in the past three weeks, one point less than what Torrey Smith has scored all season. 

Good grief. 

Here's another sobering stat. A.J. Green has an astonishing 119 targets this year. The only other player in the NFL with more than 100 is Vincent Jackson at 102 (which is one reason why Jackson is now relegated to the land of WR2 but still has a ton of upside). 

Andre Johnson's immediate rapport with Case Keenum under center (he has a gaudy 63 fantasy points in his last three games) returns him squarely to the WR1 crowd, while Dez Bryant slips a bit down the value chart due to the Dallas Cowboys apparently forgetting how to properly utilize him the past two weeks.

The most intriguing player near the top of the rankings is Jordy Nelson. With Seneca Wallace and then Scott Tolzien under center last week, Nelson caught just six passes for 56 yards, his second straight week without reaching double-digit fantasy points. 

So, let's say you don't trust Nelson without Rodgers. What type of players can you expect to get for him?

  • Zac Stacy
  • Andrew Luck and Aaron Dobson
  • Russell Wilson and Charles Clay
  • Nick Foles and Marques Colston
  • Julius Thomas
  • Jordan Cameron and Lamar Miller

If you play the matchups correctly, there are a lot more promising options at wide receiver than running back (hence 10 running backs in the top 17 players on the value chart and just four wide receivers). 

 

Tight Ends

Week 11 Trade Value for Tight Ends
RankPosition RankPlayerTeamVORPTrade Value
71Jimmy GrahamNew Orleans Saints8.828
242Rob GronkowskiNew England Patriots-2.623
283Julius ThomasDenver Broncos5.421
354Jordan CameronCleveland Browns3.919
365Vernon DavisSan Francisco 49ers3.119
546Tony GonzalezAtlanta Falcons1.513
557Antonio GatesSan Diego Chargers1.113
568Jason WittenDallas Cowboys1.013
579Jordan ReedWashington0.813
7410Martellus BennettChicago Bears0.57
7511Charles ClayMiami Dolphins0.47
9612Greg OlsenCarolina Panthers02

 

Tight End Notes

NEW ORLEANS, LA - NOVEMBER 10:  Tight end Jimmy Graham #80 of the New Orleans Saints runs with the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 10, 2013 in New Orleans, Louisiana.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Gett
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Despite being injured, Jimmy Graham continues to produce. Graham had just five receptions for 59 yards last week, a down week by his standards, but his down week is equivalent to Coby Fleener's fantasy production (5.6 fantasy points) per game.

So yeah, he's still insanely valuable. 

But let's say you aren't convinced and want to sell him high, since you have a good backup tight end and want to solidify your roster after being hurt by injuries. What could you get for him in a trade?

  • Matt Stafford and Golden Tate
  • Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin
  • Cam Newton and Maurice Jones-Drew
  • Fred Jackson and Denarius Moore
  • Drew Brees

The tight end rankings haven't changed much this year, but Rob Gronkowski remains the great unknown. It appears likely he'll be as valuable as Graham—he has 31 total points in two of his three games, though he did lay an egg against the Miami Dolphins with just two fantasy points—but we still only have three games to go by, and Brady hasn't been himself this year.

 

Defense/Special Teams

Week 11 Trade Value for Defense/Special Teams
RankPosition RankTeamVORPTrade Value
731Kansas City Chiefs8.18
832Carolina Panthers4.95
873Seattle Seahawks3.14
884San Francisco 49ers2.53

 

Defense/Special Team Notes

The only major change here is that the Carolina Panthers are now the second-most valuable fantasy defense. That will happen after scoring double-digit fantasy points in seven straight games, making this Panthers defense the hottest in all of football. 

Interestingly enough, three of these four defenses are really tough starts this week, as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Denver Broncos, the Panthers take on the New England Patriots, and the San Francisco 49ers travel to play the New Orleans Saints.

Avoid the Chiefs and Niners at all costs. You could start the Panthers, but it's risky. Any way you look at it, though, there are four clear elite defenses for fantasy owners this season. 

 

Hit me up on Twitter—I'll answer your fantasy lineup questions, tweet random fantasy musings and wonder how the New Orleans Saints could earn almost as many first downs (40) on Sunday night as the Dallas Cowboys ran plays (43).

Follow TRappaRT on Twitter