While Week 12 BCS standings are in, most college football teams are out of 2013 BCS bowl projections.
Here is an updated BCS bowl picture after Stanford upset Oregon, including predictions for each postseason showdown.
|2013 BCS Bowl Projections|
|National Championship||Alabama||Florida State|
|Rose Bowl||Ohio State||Stanford|
|Sugar Bowl||Auburn||Fresno State|
|Games are projected based on season developments.|
National Championship: Alabama vs. Florida State
The Seminoles are the more dominant team this regular season, but the Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in the postseason for years, and that’s what matters most. They're still riding dynasty status after winning three out of the past four national championships. Nick Saban has four titles to his name.
Florida State hasn’t won a title this century. Its freshman quarterback Jameis Winston is explosive, but turnover-prone, having thrown five interceptions in his past four starts. Alabama’s senior passer AJ McCarron has thrown just six interceptions the past two years.
The Crimson Tide will prevail due to their experience, efficiency and winning culture.
Alabama by three
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Urban Meyer is undefeated at Ohio State, meaning it hasn’t lost since the 2011 season. It’s won in style, too, embarrassing opponents by an average margin of 31.2 points.
Stanford hasn’t been able to do either—stay undefeated or defeat in style. It only outscores its opponents by 12.5 points per game. Granted, those opponents have been much more talented than the Buckeyes, but the Cardinal still lost by the score of 27-21 to now 4-5 Utah in October.
Ohio State will stay perfect for the second straight season, igniting controversy in the process.
Ohio State by six
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon
Oregon had national championship aspirations entering this past week, but they evaporated in its 26-20 loss to Stanford. Its ability to bounce back with a vengeance may have evaporated as well, as ESPN reported quarterback Marcus Mariota suffered an ACL strain in the game. Mariota’s recovery from the injury will ultimately determine whether or not the Ducks finish the season strong.
They won’t be able to finish strong and defeat Clemson if Mariota’s strength as a runner is significantly diminished. Oregon may be the more dominant team this season, defeating opponents by an average margin of 14.6 points per game more than the Tigers, but—besides its debacle against Florida State—Clemson has still won each one of its games by multiple scores.
With nearly two months until the Orange Bowl, Mariota’s knee has plenty of time to recover. That gives Oregon the edge unless he injures it further.
Oregon by 10
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Fresno State
Fresno State may be undefeated, but it hasn’t played a ranked team all season. It hasn’t been overwhelming in victory either. It only beat Rutgers, Boise State, Hawaii and San Diego State by one score.
Auburn will likely enter the postseason with two losses after its Nov. 30 date with Alabama, but it still deserves to be a heavy favorite over the Bulldogs. Fresno State’s defense surrenders 26.9 points per game, which is too many for its level of Mountain West competition. The Tigers only allow 20.4, and they’re in the superior SEC.
It would be surprising if they failed to win by multiple scores.
Auburn by 14
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. UCF
Like most BCS showdowns which involve the Big East…I mean, American Athletic, this one is a major mismatch.
Baylor is undefeated this season, boasts the No. 1 offense in the nation and blows out its opponents by an average margin of 45.6 points per game. The Bears just don’t run up the score against scrubs either. They embarrassed then-No. 10-ranked Oklahoma by the score of 41-12 this past week.
UCF has a quality victory over Louisville on its resume, but a three-point win against 5-4 Penn State, seven-point vs. 2-6 Memphis and loss to South Carolina don’t suggest that the Knights are capable of keeping up with a Baylor offense that scores 61.0 points per game.
Baylor by 17
David Daniels is a breaking news writer at Bleacher Report and news editor at Wade-O Radio.