One of the main factors not being discussed a lot about this fight is the huge size advantage that Franklin generally carries in a fight, and how he performs without it. Setting aside questions of skill, Franklin was TKO’d by Lyoto Machida when he fought at 205 pounds, and at the times in the UFC that his opponents neutralized his size (Okami and Silva), he didn’t have the greatest showings.
If one thing came out of Lutter’s weight-cutting fiasco, it was that it showed that Lutter cuts a lot of weight, and I don’t see Franklin having much of a size advantage. If this fight plays out like it’s “supposed” to, Franklin will win a decision on the feet or possibly gain a TKO, but Lutter is perfectly capable and willing to play the spoiler if he gets half a chance, and I think his motivation will be greater than Franklin’s. Going out on a limb, I pick Lutter by submission.
185 lbs.: Kalib Starnes (8-2-1) vs. Nate Quarry (9-2)
Nate “Rock” Quarry looks to continue his comeback from a potentially career-ending back injury with a second straight win. Kalib Starnes looks to distinguish himself from the pack in a middleweight division that gets quite fuzzy in terms of a title picture since pretty much every “name” has already been dispatched by Anderson Silva. I think at this point just about anyone with a few wins in a row and an ounce of marketability has a shot at getting a chance at the champ, and the fighters know this as well.
Quarry, a product of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter, took nearly two years off due to injury following his brutal highlight-reel knockout by then-champion Rich Franklin, and came back late last year to score a KO win over Pete Sell. The problem with that fight was that the knockout came after two full rounds of taking punishment and that Nate was arguably on the verge of being finished himself when he scored the finishing blow, and the fact that Sell has something of a history of getting over-anxious and throwing away fights (See Sell vs. Scott Smith).
Quarry’s standup, in my opinion, is effective, but not terribly accurate or dynamic, meaning that he hits hard but lacks good defense and is predictable in his striking patterns. However, I realize that it’s not entirely fair to judge someone on their first fight back after a layoff, and he did have a very impressive streak of wins under his belt prior to his title bid.
Starnes was a highly-touted prospect on season three of TUF, but bowed out in the semi-finals due to a rib injury sustained during a fight with eventual winner Kendall Grove. The popular knock on Kalib Starnes is that he lacks heart, and if one views his recent fights from that mindset, it is easy to find evidence to support it: Starnes quits due to the rib injury (which coach Ken Shamrock claimed was not severe), tells his corner between rounds against Yushin Okami that Okami is “too strong” before getting finished by strikes on the ground in the third round, and takes a doctor stoppage via cut against Alan Belcher.
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