It comes down to this; St. Pierre should beat Matt Serra. On paper, he beats him easily, however, the same thing applied to their last meeting. All extenuating circumstances (undertraining, underestimation, injuries) aside, can Serra land the same devastating strikes he did last time? For all his positive attributes, Serra has never gone five rounds in his career, and (especially at welterweight) looks to fade in the later rounds.
If he can use the mental edge from the last fight and get inside to batter “Rush,” he could make lightning strike twice. However, GSP has promised to do something to Serra that no one has seen before, and I assume it involves finishing him (for only the second time in his career). Given the events of the last fight and all that has happened since then, I simply cannot pick against St. Pierre in this fight.
If you’re inclined to make a wager, Serra has a chance, and the odds are enticing, but I don’t see it being enough. Rocky goes down to Drago (not Pete Sell) this time.
185 lbs.: Rich Franklin (22-3) vs. Travis Lutter (9-4)
Rich “Ace” Franklin, once the middleweight monarch in the UFC, has been brought down hard off his throne by the newly-imported beast of a fighter in Anderson Silva, being stopped by strikes twice. While Franklin has little to be embarrassed about (seeing as Silva has done the same to every single person he has encountered in the octagon), he is in the tenuous position of being a “Jeremy Horn,” where he can ostensibly beat everyone in the division except the champion.
Lutter had his own encounter against Silva (winning the shot on the same show where Serra won his), but failed to make the weight and was forced to compete in a non-title match in a very depleted state. Shockingly, he did very well against Silva, taking him down and even mounting him, but lost position when going for a sloppy armbar and ending up being submitted himself via triangle choke.
Somehow Lutter has worked his way back into the UFC despite a furious Dana White and what some would call a less-than-exciting style, and he plans to make the most of it.
This is a do-or-die for both men, I believe. Lutter needs to make a statement after his last debacle, and is well aware that this win could land him a title shot, especially since he has arguably done better than anyone else has against Silva thus far. Franklin needs a win to stay near the top of the division so that he could land himself back in contention if/when the belt leaves Silva’s waist. Ironically, Franklin might do better letting Lutter take the shot at Silva, but I don’t think he plans to lose the fight.
Style-wise, it’s roughly a striker vs. grappler at hearr, but Franklin’s wrestling, particularly his takedown defense, is often underestimated. Similarly, Lutter can stand a bit, and has only one TKO loss in his career, leading me to believe that his chin and/or defense is pretty solid, but I don’t think he plans to bang it out with Franklin any longer than he has to.
On the ground, Lutter has a decided advantage, having very good subs and a surprisingly adept ground and pound. Franklin’s submission defense (via Jorge Gurgel) is not to be questioned, but he was in trouble against Yushin Okami with a kimura, and Okami is generally not known for his submissions.
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