NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 10: Making Sense of Toughest Matchups on Slate

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NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 10: Making Sense of Toughest Matchups on Slate
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 of the 2013 NFL regular season commenced on Thursday, November 7, with the Minnesota Vikings defeating the Washington Redskins by a score of 34-27. It was the beginning of what is certain to be yet another week of unpredictability.

The question is, which teams will beat the odds in the week's closest games?

Date Road Team Prediction Home Team Odds (via Bovada)
Thursday, Nov. 7 Washington Redskins (27) 31-23 Minnesota Vikings (34) N/A
Sunday, Nov. 10 Seattle Seahawks 28-17 Atlanta Falcons Seahawks (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Detroit Lions 27-31 Chicago Bears Even
Sunday, Nov. 10 Cincinnati Bengals 27-20 Baltimore Ravens Bengals (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Philadelphia Eagles 28-23 Green Bay Packers Packers (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Jacksonville Jaguars 13-24 Tennessee Titans Titans (-13)
Sunday, Nov. 10 St. Louis Rams 14-27 Indianapolis Colts Colts (-10)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Oakland Raiders 24-28 New York Giants Giants (-7.5)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Buffalo Bills 20-21 Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Carolina Panthers 16-21 San Francisco 49ers 49ers (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Houston Texans 20-23 Arizona Cardinals Cardinals (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Denver Broncos 35-27 San Diego Chargers Broncos (-7)
Sunday, Nov. 10 Dallas Cowboys 35-42 New Orleans Saints Saints (-7)
Monday, Nov. 11 Miami Dolphins 24-16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dolphins (-3)

Week 9: 6-7, Season: 75-44

 

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Even via Bovada

Prediction: 31-27, Bears

The Detroit Lions will travel to face the Chicago Bears in a game that will decide the front-runner in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers injured and the Bears, Lions and Green Bay Packers all tied at 5-3, every game counts.

Which team will win?

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According to Bovada, the betting line is even. That's how it should be.

The Lions are coming off a bye week but reached 5-3 by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 31-30 in Week 8. During Week 4, the Lions defeated Chicago by a score of 40-32, which has some believing there could be a repeat.

If Detroit does win, it'd be its first victory at Soldier Field since October 28, 2007.

The Bears aren't at full strength, but Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com reports that quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to make his return from injury. Cutler had 12 passing touchdowns on a completion percentage of 64.9 before going down during Week 7.

That will be the difference in this game.

That's not all you need to know about Cutler's importance.

Cutler has the best fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL, per Tyler Dunne of USA Today. That's not a fluke, as Cutler has mastered late-game situations over the past two seasons, and that'll be enough to earn Chicago a home victory.

Regardless of what happens, this will be the game of the week.

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Packers (-1) via Bovada

Prediction: 28-23, Eagles

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Green Bay Packers would defeat the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10. I rarely go back on my picks, but I made that selection before Aaron Rodgers went down with what has been reported as a fractured clavicle, per Mike Spofford of Packers.com.

Green Bay doesn't often lose at home, and to drop two in a row would be unheard of, but Rodgers' absence could be a crippling blow.

Which team will win?

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On top of Rodgers being absent, Clay Matthews is questionable, and the trio of Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and Nick Perry are all out, per RotoWorld. Even if Matthews does play, Seneca Wallace will be making his first start since 2011, when he completed 51.4 percent of his passes.

Worst of all, he'll be doing it without two of the best receivers on the team in Cobb and Finley.

As for Philadelphia, Nick Foles' seven touchdowns in Week 9 were a statistical anomaly, but his strong play wasn't. He played poorly against the Dallas Cowboys, but Foles has 1,028 yards, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions on a completion percentage of 62.7 in six total appearances.

Love him or hate him, Foles has been playing well.

That's what it comes down to, as LeSean McCoy cancels out everything that Green Bay's rushing attack has been able to do. The Packers defense could make things interesting, but if it comes down to one quarterback outdueling the other, Foles gets the nod over Wallace every time.

For what it's worth, Philadelphia is 4-1 on the road.

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