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NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 10: Making Sense of Toughest Matchups on Slate

Sep 29, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Marc Trestman (left) and Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz (right) shakes hands after the game at Ford Field. The Lions won 40-32. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Maxwell OgdenCorrespondent IIIDecember 6, 2016

Week 10 of the 2013 NFL regular season commenced on Thursday, November 7, with the Minnesota Vikings defeating the Washington Redskins by a score of 34-27. It was the beginning of what is certain to be yet another week of unpredictability.

The question is, which teams will beat the odds in the week's closest games?

DateRoad TeamPredictionHome TeamOdds (via Bovada)
Thursday, Nov. 7Washington Redskins (27)31-23Minnesota Vikings (34)N/A
Sunday, Nov. 10Seattle Seahawks28-17Atlanta FalconsSeahawks (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10Detroit Lions27-31Chicago BearsEven
Sunday, Nov. 10Cincinnati Bengals27-20Baltimore RavensBengals (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10Philadelphia Eagles28-23Green Bay PackersPackers (-1)
Sunday, Nov. 10Jacksonville Jaguars13-24Tennessee TitansTitans (-13)
Sunday, Nov. 10St. Louis Rams14-27Indianapolis ColtsColts (-10)
Sunday, Nov. 10Oakland Raiders24-28New York GiantsGiants (-7.5)
Sunday, Nov. 10Buffalo Bills20-21Pittsburgh SteelersSteelers (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10Carolina Panthers16-21San Francisco 49ers49ers (-6)
Sunday, Nov. 10Houston Texans20-23Arizona CardinalsCardinals (-3)
Sunday, Nov. 10Denver Broncos35-27San Diego ChargersBroncos (-7)
Sunday, Nov. 10Dallas Cowboys35-42New Orleans SaintsSaints (-7)
Monday, Nov. 11Miami Dolphins24-16Tampa Bay BuccaneersDolphins (-3)
Week 9: 6-7, Season: 75-44

 

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

Sep 29, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) walks of the field after the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. The Lions won 40-32. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Even via Bovada

Prediction: 31-27, Bears

The Detroit Lions will travel to face the Chicago Bears in a game that will decide the front-runner in the NFC North. With Aaron Rodgers injured and the Bears, Lions and Green Bay Packers all tied at 5-3, every game counts.

According to Bovada, the betting line is even. That's how it should be.

The Lions are coming off a bye week but reached 5-3 by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 31-30 in Week 8. During Week 4, the Lions defeated Chicago by a score of 40-32, which has some believing there could be a repeat.

If Detroit does win, it'd be its first victory at Soldier Field since October 28, 2007.

The Bears aren't at full strength, but Jeff Dickerson of ESPNChicago.com reports that quarterback Jay Cutler is expected to make his return from injury. Cutler had 12 passing touchdowns on a completion percentage of 64.9 before going down during Week 7.

That will be the difference in this game.

That's not all you need to know about Cutler's importance.

Cutler has the best fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL, per Tyler Dunne of USA Today. That's not a fluke, as Cutler has mastered late-game situations over the past two seasons, and that'll be enough to earn Chicago a home victory.

Regardless of what happens, this will be the game of the week.

 

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Nov 3, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) shakes hands with wide receiver DeSean Jackson (10) during the final minutes of the game Oakland Raiders at O.co Coliseum. The Eagles won 49-20. Mandatory Credit: Bob Stanton-US
Bob Stanton-USA TODAY Sports

Date: Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Betting Line: Packers (-1) via Bovada

Prediction: 28-23, Eagles

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Green Bay Packers would defeat the Philadelphia Eagles during Week 10. I rarely go back on my picks, but I made that selection before Aaron Rodgers went down with what has been reported as a fractured clavicle, per Mike Spofford of Packers.com.

Green Bay doesn't often lose at home, and to drop two in a row would be unheard of, but Rodgers' absence could be a crippling blow.

On top of Rodgers being absent, Clay Matthews is questionable, and the trio of Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and Nick Perry are all out, per RotoWorld. Even if Matthews does play, Seneca Wallace will be making his first start since 2011, when he completed 51.4 percent of his passes.

Worst of all, he'll be doing it without two of the best receivers on the team in Cobb and Finley.

As for Philadelphia, Nick Foles' seven touchdowns in Week 9 were a statistical anomaly, but his strong play wasn't. He played poorly against the Dallas Cowboys, but Foles has 1,028 yards, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions on a completion percentage of 62.7 in six total appearances.

Love him or hate him, Foles has been playing well.

That's what it comes down to, as LeSean McCoy cancels out everything that Green Bay's rushing attack has been able to do. The Packers defense could make things interesting, but if it comes down to one quarterback outdueling the other, Foles gets the nod over Wallace every time.

For what it's worth, Philadelphia is 4-1 on the road.

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