NFL Picks Week 10: Predicting Locks Against the Spread

Alex Koma@AlexKomaVTContributor IIINovember 9, 2013

Nick Foles' recent success shows that the Eagles have plenty of offense to beat the Packers
Nick Foles' recent success shows that the Eagles have plenty of offense to beat the PackersBrian Bahr/Getty Images

With injuries starting to stack up in Week 10 of the NFL season, a variety of point spreads have changed wildly and deserve to be monitored closely. Whether it’s Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers or EJ Manuel for the Buffalo Bills, the health of some key players has forced oddsmakers to constantly reevaluate the spreads in some big games.

Take a look at the picks against spread for every game below, in addition to a few big locks for the week. All lines are courtesy of

Away TeamHome TeamLinePrediction
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee TitansTEN -12.5TEN
Philadelphia EaglesGreen Bay PackersGB -1PHI
Buffalo BillsPittsburgh SteelersPIT -4BUF
Oakland RaidersNew York GiantsNYG -7NYG
St. Louis RamsIndianapolis ColtsIND -9.5IND
Seattle SeahawksAtlanta FalconsSEA -5.5SEA
Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore RavensCIN -1.5BAL
Detroit LionsChicago BearsPKDET
Carolina PanthersSan Francisco 49ersSF -6SF
Houston TexansArizona CardinalsARI -3ARI
Denver BroncosSan Diego ChargersDEN -7DEN
Dallas CowboysNew Orleans SaintsNO -6.5NO
Miami DolphinsTampa Bay BuccaneersMIA -2MIA


Philadelphia Eagles (+1) over Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is at the core of everything the Packers do offensively. Now that’s he out with a fractured collarbone, no one knows how the offense will respond.

Seneca Wallace stepped in for Rodgers after he went down against the Chicago Bears and managed to complete 11 of his 19 passes for a measly 114 yards. Although the Packers were able to lean on running back Eddie Lacy for some help, his 150 yards on the ground weren’t enough to help the offense function with any kind of consistency.

Wallace took four sacks during the game, showing that he’s going to have real trouble staying upright going forward.

By contrast, the Eagles may have started to hit their stride offensively. It was surely a bit of an aberration that quarterback Nick Foles threw for an NFL record-tying seven scores, but if he’s healthy, it could be a sign that he’s starting to get comfortable in Chip Kelly’s offense.

He seems to have found some chemistry with receiver Riley Cooper, as the GIF below shows, presenting another weapon for the Packers to keep an eye on.

Green Bay is allowing 250.5 yards passing per game, putting it at 20th in the league, and could have real trouble slowing Foles. If the Packers defense can’t hold and the offense can’t keep up with the Eagles, then Philadelphia will have no trouble pulling the upset here.


Buffalo Bills (+4) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have shown flashes of brilliance at times, but they’ve been a horribly inconsistent team this season. The defense yielded 55 points to the New England Patriots last week, and that performance was indicative of the team’s struggles in both the secondary and linebacking corps.

Now, the Steelers defense will be forced to contend with EJ Manuel, who’s finally fit to return from his early-season knee injury. Manuel proved that he can make some plays with his legs in the first five games of the season, scampering for 91 yards on the ground.

The Steelers have had major problems defending against mobile quarterbacks, as this 93-yard touchdown run by the Oakland Raiders’ Terrelle Pryor proves:

If Manuel can shake off the rust quickly, he should have no trouble helping the Bills make this a close game or even helping them win outright.

Pittsburgh may be at home, but the Bills definitely have the ability to make the Steelers sweat. Four points is just a little for this line, so taking the Bills to cover here would surely be a wise choice.