Week 10 NFL Picks: Iffy Large-Margin Favorites to Bank On This Weekend

Chris Roling@@Chris_RolingFeatured ColumnistNovember 9, 2013

Nov 3, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) talks to wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) against the Houston Texans before the game at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports
Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports

Smart bettors know it is advisable to stay away from large spreads for fear of getting burnt where it hurts—in the wallet.

But they also know through careful analysis when to go in big with the favorites.

Week 10 has a few large favorites worth further inspection rather than a simple face value spread, and what bettors will find is this week's large favorites are more than worth a big bet.

While some may shy away, a few will vastly benefit. Here's a full look at the lines for this weekend, followed by three large-margin favorites sure to prove worthy of the investment.


NFL Week 10 Lines and Predictions
Away Team Home Team Line Prediction (ATS)
Oakland Raiders New York Giants NYG -7 Raiders
Seattle Seahawks Atlanta Falcons SEA -5.5 Seahawks
Detroit Lions Chicago Bears PK Detroit
Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers GB -1 Philadelphia
Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans TEN -13 Titans
St. Louis Rams Indianapolis Colts IND -9.5 Colts
Buffalo Bills Pittsburgh Steelers PIT -3 Bills
Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens CIN -1.5 Bengals
Carolina Panthers San Francisco 49ers SF -6 Carolina
Houston Texans Arizona Cardinals ARZ -3 EV Texans
Denver Broncos San Diego Chargers DEN -7 Broncos
Dallas Cowboys New Orleans Saints NO -6.5 Cowboys
Miami Dolphins Tampa Bay Buccaneers MIA -2.5 Dolphins
Odds courtesy of Vegas Insider


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (-13)

Here we go again.

At least Jacksonville fans (anybody?) can take solace in the fact there has been plenty of financial gain available in games the Jaguars play this season.

On average, the Jaguars are outscored by a 33-11 ratio, which makes this more than a favorable bet for brave bettors.

Don't believe in Tennessee? It's time to start. Jake Locker is back under center and has led the team to a 4-2 record when on the field. Chris Johnson went off for 150 yards and two scores last week, which is business as usual as Jim Wyatt of the The Tennessean points out:

Johnson is in for a major day against the NFL's worst run defense. Flip over to the other side, and the Titans have a top-10 pass defense led by elite corner Alterraun Verner, who ranks as the No. 2 corner in the NFL this season per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

All in all, this is an easy positive gain for those willing to take the dive.


St. Louis Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

The St. Louis Rams are in 2014 mode.

Star quarterback Sam Bradford is out for the year, and the Rams have lost three straight. Rookie back Zac Stacy has proven to be quite the find with his 475 yards and two scores since taking over the starting gig, but St. Louis clearly has eyes on the 2014 draft and its two first-round selections.

Andrew Luck and the Colts are focused on getting back to the postseason. After a scare last week against Houston, it's time for Indianapolis to stop playing down to the competition.

While receiver Reggie Wayne is out for the year, T.Y. Hilton more than stepped up in his absence as Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar details:

That kind of production will keep St. Louis honest on the road, and Luck and the Colts will have little issue blowing by the Kellen Clemens-led Rams.


Denver Broncos (-7) vs. San Diego Chargers

Bettors know not to go against Peyton Manning.

Manning has let bettors down just once this season in an MVP-esque year, and Denver has won six of seven by 16 or more points.

Now Manning, coming off a bye week with ample time to prepare, gets a shot at the NFL's No. 28 pass defense, which allows 275.4 yards per game.

It's going to get ugly early from Qualcomm Stadium.

Oct 27, 2013; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) passes in the fourth quarter against the Washington Redskins at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, Denver's secondary is actually worse than San Diego's, and Philip Rivers has re-kindled his career under coach Mike McCoy, but a predictable Rivers can be a mediocre Rivers—Denver is a top-three unit against the run.

With no room to run and an early deficit to overcome, San Diego has little chance of keeping this one close.

Last year, the Broncos beat San Diego on the road 35-24. Expect a similar outcome here—or worse.



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