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Fabio Quagliarella and Real Madrid's Sami Khedira chase the ball in Tuesday's 2-2 draw at the Juventus Stadium.
Previous Goal: Points against Madrid, win next two matches.
Status: ON TRACK
New Goal: Beat Copenhagen, play to the situation against Galatasaray.
Juventus are currently propping up Group B after three draws and a loss, but thanks to Copenhangen's surprising win against Galatasaray, they actually control their own destiny—albeit in an indirect way.
That control is dependent on Real Madrid not getting surprised by Copenhagen or Galatasaray in the last two rounds of group play.
The Bianconeri played well enough to win against Real Madrid on Tuesday, though the match ended 2-2. They very well could have won had Iker Casillas not checked what could have turned into unstoppable momentum for the home team with three excellent saves.
Still, Fernando Llorente's 65th-minute header—his second goal in as many Champions League games—earned a vital point for Juve, and so long as Real helps them, Juve can make sure they go through as runners-up so long as they take care of their business.
The key to all of this is beating Copenhagen at home on Nov. 27. If they don't, it would put them on the razor's edge in December in Turkey.
Juve thoroughly dominated the game at Parken Stadium in September but couldn't convert chances and left with a 1-1 draw. A win at home seems likely, especially given the fact that the team's recent losses to Real and Fiorentina seem to have lit a fire under them.
If they do win, the situation will depend on the Real/Gala game at the Bernabeu. Three possibilities would exist:
- Madrid wins. If this happens, Juve would be two points ahead of the Turks and only require a draw in Istanbul to advance. If they do draw, Copenhagen could draw level on points if they upset Madrid, but a Juve win in Round 5 would insure that they own the tiebreaker.
- A draw. This would put Juve one point ahead of the Turks, and again the Italians would only need a draw to advance. Copenhagen could again come level on points if Juve draws, but again Juve would own the tiebreaker.
Galatasaray wins. This would put Gala one point ahead of Juve going into the final round of group play, forcing the Bianconeri to win away from home to advance. The Bianconeri are no strangers to that situation—they did it last year in Shakhtar's imposing Donbass Arena. Copenhagen would be a non-factor here because if Juve draws, they're out. Although they would beat out Copenhagen for third and continue to play in Europe, albeit in the Europa League.
The first of those scenarios is the most probable, considering the game's locale and Madrid's 6-1 thrashing of Gala in September. Regardless, so long as Madrid takes care of business, all Juve needs to do is take care of their own and they're through.